Wednesday Issue

20th May 2015

Hi %%First Name%%,

I was disappointed to read that Michel Platini had done a U-Turn by relaxing the fair play rules on how much clubs can spend in the future. This now gives the mega rich clubs like Chelsea and Man City licence to splash out fortunes on transfers and wages.

To me it gives them an unfair advantage along with Bayen, Barca and Real.

We seem to live in a World where money rules not just in football but also in horse racing where the rich Arab or Irish owned horses win nearly all the big pots. Even outside of sport the recent election was won by the Conservatives who had by far the biggest advertising budget.

Well the top four places in the Premier League are sorted but who is going to be the third team for the drop?
Tonight Arsenal are at home to Sunderland and I can see the black cats taking quite a beating.

Of course the interesting team are Newcastle who have some of the most loyal fans in the country and really deserve better from the people running the club. Owner Mike Ashley seems to have his own agenda and has no love for the club at all.

If I was a Newcastle fan I would vote with my feet and not renew my season ticket for next season regardless of which division they are playing in as it's the only way to get Ashley out and give this great club the chance to return to wonderful days when they played such entertaining football under Kevin Keegan.

Its been a good week for Betting Opportunity having landed a 42/1 double and also for Fold4gold who banged in a 30/1 double and in the words of Tom Jones you have to agree it's not unusual!

There is a decent card at Lingfield today on the turf but with the weather so unpredictable I'm going to play Howies Hottie in the 8.10 on Kemptons polytrack.

The selection is Moonday Sun who has dropped to a competitive mark in the handicap. He was running well at one time when with Amanda Perrit but has changed stables a few times and is now in the care of Phil McEntee. Last time showing a bit of his old sparkle and he could go well at an each way price.

EYECATCHERS

FLAT RACING

Nakuti trainer S.Kirk - Noted staying on at York when not getting the best of runs.

White Bullet trainer K.Ryan - Made his debut at York and after a slow start he ran on strongly to make the frame.

Spifer trainer D.Nicholls - Well behind at York but could never get past a wall of horses and coasted home. He is well handicapped on his old form for other trainers and can pop up at a big price.

Top Notch Tonto trainer B.Elisson - Up with the pace in the group 1 at Newbury but the ground was much too quick for him. When he gets his softer ground he is a potent force.

Panoma trainer L.Cumani - Finshed well in a decent maiden at Newbury. She is entered in the Oaks so must be well regarded.

Dominada trainer B.Ellison - I fancied this one yesterday at Newcastle but rain softened the ground when back on a sounder surface he can win.

Back next Wednesday have a good week and be lucky.

Howard Davis-Shaw.
Betting Opportunity

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This Weeks Golf News - McIlroy and Spieth Double Pays 27/1

Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are currently the best two players in the world by some distance. They are clear favourites to win tournaments on the European and PGA Tours but the world number one looks a better betting proposition to win the PGA Championship at Wentworth than the player closest to him in the rankings to win the Crown Plaza Colonial in America.

The PGA event sponsored by BMW is one of the most prestigious and valuable tournaments on the tour and has been played at Wentworth since 1984. The famous West Course has hosted the PGA Championship in each year of its existence and the old World Play from 1964 to 2007. The complex in Virginia Water is also the location for the European Tour headquarters.

The US PGA Tour is the most lucrative in the world but the European Tour is now global and the PGA Championship is its flagship event. The Tour website describes the organisation as “a company that operates a broad range of business initiatives essential to its primary mission of administering professional tournament golf” The organisers of this week’s tournament will be disappointed that several high profile members are not playing at Wentworth.

The West Course is tree lined with fairly generous fairways leading to greens that can be fast after a dry spell. The stimpmeter regularly measures over 12 which increases the degree of difficulty of the course. It has an unusual 35-37 layout with par 5s on the final two holes which provide real birdie and eagle chances. So the leader board can change quickly. The other par 5s and the relatively easy 4th and 12th. There are two pars on each nine and the hardest holes come early in the round at 1 and 3.

The delightful old style course at Wentworth requires good strategy, first-class shot making and the course management ability to know which pins to attack and which to play away from. It also requires the ability to handle the subtle breaks on the greens and an understanding of the swirling Wentworth winds. Indeed, every player is given not only a yardage guide but also a wind map showing wind directions in different parts of the course.

Despite the need for good approach play the longer hitters have an advantage on the par 5s but there can be little doubt that course experience is very important. If betting in running do remember that the final hole is a reachable par 5 that can provide opportunities to break par. There isn’t a two-tee start so the whole field goes off from the first tee with last starters teeing of in the middle of the afternoon. It is an advantage to play early in round 1 when the winds are lighter.

The championship has a history of multiple champions as the cream often rises to the top. Nick Faldo, Severiano Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer, Colin Montgomerie and Luke Donald have each won more than one PGA event and they have been the best players in Europe at certain stages of their careers. McIlroy is the defending champion and there are a number of precedents for back-to-back and multiple winners.

McIlroy will start the tournament as the shortest-priced favourite this century after winning the Wells Fargo Championship in the States and breaking a number of scoring record. His 7 shot win at Quail Hollow resulted in punters backing him into 11/4 for an event that he started at 14/1 last year. That week came shortly after a very public split from his partner. Since then he has won two majors, two World Golf Championship events and regular tournaments on both main tours.

Heavy rain has softened the greens and these conditions suit McIlroy’s game. A spokesman for Hills has highlighted the betting public’s support for him saying: “We are avoiding Rory at all costs – we have not been so evasive over any player since Tiger was at his very best.” More rain is forecast and this type of weather gives McIlroy a comparative advantage over the field due to his driving distance.

The key skills for good scoring at Wentworth are driving distance, hitting the greens in the correct number of shots and GIR putting. McIlroy has by far the best profile in this context and is the only player in the field in the top 10 for the key skills. In fact Wentworth is a perfect fit for his game and in his current form McIlroy could lap the rest of the field. The only negative is fatigue but at 26 he can recover from regular golf and Trans-Atlantic travel quickly.

Branden Grace is the only other competitor this week in the top 30 for distance off the tee, finding greens in the correct number of shots and then putting when reaching the dance floors in regulation. He combines solid course and current form and is a proven winner on the European Tour. Grace won four tournaments in 2012, had a blank year in 2013 and has won decent tournaments in Europe in the last two years which makes him a viable alternative to Rory this week.

Favourite backers will be all over the McIlroy/Spieth double and bookies are running scared of this combination. Spieth is as short as 6/1 to win the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, a tournament for which he could have been backed to win at 50/1 this time last year. Despite winning the Masters Spieth has still some ground to make up on McIlroy in the world rankings. He needs to win another major at least this season to overhaul McIlroy and reach the pinnacle of the sport.

Spieth has solid form at Colonial but is not in the top 50 for the important accuracy skills to contend on a relatively short course by modern standards. Colonial is a tight, par 70 track with small greens and water hazards on 6 holes. It rewards accuracy off the tee and from the fairway. McIlroy is far more suited to Wentworth than Spieth to Colonial and is the more likely winner this week of their respective tournaments.

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