Saturday Issue

16th May 2015

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United and Arsenal in Third/Fourth Place Decider

The team that finishes fourth in the Premier League have to play a qualifying tie for the Champions League before the start of the regular season. The top four places are now set in stone but the match between Manchester United and Arsenal at Old Trafford on Sunday will go a long way towards determining which side will have to deal with the inconvenience of a pivotal match in July. The tie takes place in the middle of pre-season training and before the first regular draft of fixtures begin.

The race for fifth place to enjoy the delights of the Europa League is now between Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton. Rumours that Liverpool will lose their last two matches are unconfirmed but they may wish to forgo the long winded nature of the Europa League. However, the waters are muddied by the fact that the match against Crystal Palace will be Steven Gerrard’s last for the club at Anfield. The fans will want to give him a good send off but maybe not qualify for the Europa League.

Aston Villa are playing in the Cup Final but are still not quite free of relegation worries. They probably need one more point to keep their status but it may not be won at Southampton as that side will want to end the season with a winning run. Manchester City are in the mix with Arsenal to finish second and that aim can be made easier with a win over a Swansea side with little on the match. The fixture between West Brom and Chelsea on Monday will have a party atmosphere as for both sides its job done.

Chelsea have won the Premier League for the first time in five years. The season is running to form as Chelsea and Manchester City were the first two favourites at the start of the season. In the last 17 seasons the ante post favourites have won the league on 10 occasions. Chelsea were the market leaders before the campaign began and are top dogs in England for the first time since 2009-10. In only one season since 1997-98 have the league champions been third in the betting and Manchester United won’t be adding to that tally this season. This season the clubs with the biggest wage bills have again risen to the top.

Chelsea‘s match against West Brom will be a celebration as the home side are secure from the drop and the Blues have won the league. Chelsea were not made for Jose Mourinho last season and it showed despite them finishing only four points behind City and reaching the Champions League semi-finals. Nemanja Matic was recruited and he made a noticeable difference to the balance of the midfield and that process has continued this season. Chelsea bought back the world’s best young goalkeeper in Thibaut Courtois from a loan spell at Atletico Madrid and Cesc Fabregas has speeded up passing in midfield but the best coup was the signing of Diego Costa.

Sergio Aguero is long odds on to be the top scorer in the Premier League this season. He is five goals clear of Harry Kane and has scored one more than Costa. The player Chelsea signed from Atletico is being rested and probably won’t get another chance to add to his tally. At one stage Costa looked like being the first player from abroad to finish leading marksman immediately. Aguero is a wonderful player and has now proven his ability to play matches in quick succession. He looks a good thing to score again against Swansea.

In 2013 Wigan won the FA Cup and were relegated so Aston Villa must be wary as a precedent has been set. The win over Liverpool in the semi-finals was that of a team ‘too good to go down’ but the league table did not watch the match and the numbers rarely lie. Villa probably have enough points to stay up but may struggle to avoid defeat at Southampton which means relegation issues could lurk until the final day of the league season. They have won just 5 of 18 road matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding 26. Southampton have the second best defensive record in the league.

Steven Gerard has scored 183 goals for Liverpool over 706 matches in all competitions. He remained loyal to the club he has always supported but never won the Premier League. He will be haunted by the slip against Chelsea last season which was a huge turning point. The Anfield career ending run off matches was also spoilt by his sending off after 38 seconds against Manchester United. The negatives of playing in the Europa League will be negated by the desire for the iconic player to win his last match at Anfield and Palace are unlikely to disrupt that scenario.

In terms of settling key issues the biggest match of the weekend is between United and Arsenal. Louis Van Gaal has met the minimum target of qualifying for the Champions League but would like automatic qualification and no need for preliminary fixtures around the time of the Open Championship at St Andrews. The close season is short enough without asking players to be at their best in the middle of the summer holidays. Beating Arsenal on Sunday is key to avoiding that chore and United have not lost to their great rivals from London in the league since 2011.

United have the second best home record this season behind Chelsea, winning 14 of 18 matches, scoring 40 goals and conceding 14. Arsenal have the second best away record, also only inferior to the champions, with 10 wins and a tally of 29 goals and eight fewer conceded. Two of the last four league meetings have ended in draws and neither side has won by more than one goal in the last seven. The statistics point to a draw but United often win matches of this nature so can pick up three points and leave the race for third in the melting pot.

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This Weeks Content...

Page 3 - This weeks Betting Opportunity Eye-Catchers.
Page 4 - Yours In Sport with Kevan Minter - The Colonel.
Page 6 - Football Focus - This Weekends Football

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