17th April 2015

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Arsenal and Liverpool Head for a Wembley May Showdown

Despite the knockout nature of the competition the cream usually comes to the top in the FA Cup and the most likely final this year is a fixture between Arsenal and Liverpool. An added strand to that match is that it is being played on May 30th, Steven Gerrard’s birthday so he could end his career at Liverpool with a double celebration. However, on current form Arsenal would be favourites to become the first team to win the FA Cup in two successive years.

Since the 1995-96 renewal only two winners of the FA Cup have been from outside the elite of the Premier League. Despite the continued devaluing of the competition the better teams generally proper though Portsmouth in 2008 and Wigan in 2013 are the exceptions. Seventeen of the last nineteen winners have come from a small group of major teams that comprises Chelsea, Arsenal, the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool.

The Football Association Challenge Cup is a knockout competition contested by the top ten tiers of English football. A club’s stadium must meet certain standards of safety and capacity for it to be eligible. A team from the top two levels must come through six ties to win the Cup. Teams are not seeded and each round of fixtures is determined by a free draw. This means nobody knows from round to round their opponents and that throws up some great ties.

The first of the double header of Cup fixtures this weekend matches Reading and Arsenal at tea time on Saturday. Nobody should be delayed from other activities that evening as Arsenal can progress to the final by winning this match by two goals or more. They are one of the form teams of the Premier League while Reading are 18th in the Championship though free of relegation worries. There is a gap of 37 places between the sides in the hierarchy of English football and Arsenal can make their class tell.

Arsene Wenger’s nine year trophy drought ended when Arsenal won the FA Cup last season. The win was far from pretty as the side needed penalties to beat Wigan in the semi-finals and recovered from a two goal deficit to beat Hull in the final. The signings of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez means Wenger has abandoned his prudent approach and Oliver Giroud is now scoring in every match. Wenger now looks certain to maintain his proud record of always qualifying the Gunners for the Champions League and another FA Cup would be the icing on the cake.

At the start of the season Reading were looking for improvement under a Thai consortium but they have actually regressed with this new regime spending the money. They have had to rely on several academy players and the youthful squad has struggled at this level. The season has been characterised by inconsistency but the potential to finish higher up the league has been highlighted by the Cup run. The players have just not managed to play well over the whole marathon that is the Championship fixture list. Overall staying in the league and playing at Wembley is a good return for the new investors.

The two sides have only had one previous FA Cup meeting which Arsenal won 3-1 away from home in 1987. That was the first of the 9 fixtures between the sides and Arsenal have won all of them. Both teams have scored in the last three fixtures which have each produced three goals or more. In fact these matches have all been goal fests with 24 goals scored in total, 16 by Arsenal and 8 by Reading. The average number of goals in the full history of this fixture in all competitions is 5 but that trend should not continue in a match on Saturday that Arsenal can win 2-0.

Liverpool have found their best form at this time of the year for three seasons. Brendan Rodgers’ win ratio goes up after January. He has developed a pattern of play that suits the players and in Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho he has two gems at his disposal. However, Sterling’s stupidity and off field antics have not helped their preparations for the Cup semi. Liverpool all but won the league last season and only one slip by Steven Gerrard scuppered their chances of a first title since 1990. There was a definite hangover at the start of the season and reverses against Manchester United and Arsenal have made Champions League qualification difficult.

Villa’s Cup run and Premier League safety have come about during the Tim Sherwood era. Tactics may be not his forte but management is just as much about motivating players and finding a team ethic and focus and Sherwood has delivered in this context. Villa, once the champions of Europe, have been dismal for the last three seasons but at last there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Christian Benteke has found his scoring form and relegation though not totally off the agenda is highly unlikely.

Liverpool and Aston Villa are two of the most established clubs in English football and have never missed a season in the Premier League. In the history of the fixture Liverpool have won 92 matches, Villa have come out on top 56 times and there have been 40 draws. They last meeting in the Cup was in 1996 when Liverpool won 3-0 on the way to reaching a final lost to a late Eric Cantona goal for Manchester United. Both teams have won one of the last three meetings and there has been one draw in that run of fixtures.

On league form alone this is a match Liverpool can win by two clear goals and qualify for the final and play Arsenal in the end of season showpiece at Wembley Stadium. Both teams should be backed giving up one goal on the handicap to set up a match between two of four most famous and successful clubs in the history of English football. Then it’s over to Steven Gerrard and he might just be the difference in his last match for his beloved Liverpool and still no side will have won the Cup two years running.

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