11th January 2019
Hi ,
If all the early declarations hold their ground and run the 32Red Casino Chase at Kempton it could have implications for a number of races at the Cheltenham Festival. The most significant information could be gleaned about Waiting Patiently who was brought down in the King George V1 Chase at the same track on Boxing Day when going well. Saturday’s card also features the Lanzarote Hurdle which is one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season. Warwick stages a decent card featuring the Leamington Novices’ Hurdle which was won by The New One in 2013.
There is a link between Lanzarote and The New One which is the Champion Hurdle. Lanzarote won the race in 1974 which was a fine achievement because there were several brilliant two mile hurdlers in training at the time. The New One never won a Champion Hurdle but was unlucky in 2014 when impeded by the fall of the sadly deceased Our Conor. Jezki won the race but it could have had a totally different complexion if Our Conor had not fallen and The New One not lost several lengths as a result of the fatal incident. Laurina receives the seven pounds mares’ allowance which could be crucial in the final outcome.
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The 32Red Casino Chase is a listed race over two miles and four and a half furlongs. Waiting Patiently won the race last year, beating Art Mauresque by eight lengths carrying eight pounds more than the runner up. The horse did not run at Cheltenham or Aintree last spring and the King George was his first outing since winning the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Ascot in February. Waiting Patiently beat Frodon off level weights by 15 lengths and the form has been franked by Frodon winning a competitive handicap chase at Cheltenham in December off top weight.
Top Notch was well beaten in fourth place but is shorter in the betting for the Kempton race on Saturday. Waiting Patiently is likely to run pending suitable ground but all will have been revealed by the declarations on Thursday. Charbel is the ante post favourite and that horse has some outstanding form at the highest level and a higher best rating than Waiting Patiently. The race commentary reported that Waiting Patiently unseated his rider in the King George but was badly hampered by Bristol De Mai when that horse fell at the ninth fence. Waiting Patiently was being held up in the rear and it was too early to say if he would have won the King George.
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Waiting Patiently was given a BHA rating of 156 for winning the Betfair Chase last February. Charbel has run off 159 in his last two races and the opening show in ante post betting is often based on ratings and then the betting public frames the market. Charbel beat God’s Own by eight lengths receiving six pounds. Waiting Patiently beat the same horse by 12 lengths carrying four pounds more in this race last season. The collateral form suggests Waiting Patiently can win back-to-back 32Red Casino Chases if the horse is declared to run. The King George did not extend the horse as he didn’t get to half way so a run is on the cards.
Kloud Gate is the favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle after two facile wins in December and achieving an official rating of 115. On Racing Post Ratings Big Time Dancer has achieved something similar but the five pounds claim of a conditional jockey could make all the difference. Birchdale is a worthy favourite for the big novice hurdle at Warwick but the most informative run could be produced by Waiting Patiently as long as the ground is suitable.
Best Wishes,
BetFan
