Hamilton way over-priced in early Malaysian win market.
Form-to-Form
Australia results makes up most of the credible form we have to go on for the second race of the F1 season. The massive changes to the rule book have meant the results from last season is near worthless as a form guide.
Thankfully Malaysia�s Sepang�s International Circuit is fundamentally very similar to Melbourne. It offers an almost identical flat-out section and a very similar amount of the race is spent at full-throttle.
Low tyre wear and medium/high brake wear are other striking similarities. According to the history book it does, however, see far fewer accidents than Australia and this is despite of a host of rain-affected races.
Outstanding, Unprecedented
The outstanding feature of the Australian Grand Prix was the fastest lap. These are only set towards the very end of the race when the cars weigh considerably less than they did at the race start (90+ kilos in this modern era).
However, race winner Nico Rosberg posted the race�s fastest lap on lap 19! With a circuit not suddenly hit by severe weather this is unprecedented. It is also the biggest indicator of all that the German driver could well of circulated the Melbourne circuit two seconds a lap faster than he did.
Jenson Button posted his personal fastest lap at the end of the race, 1min 33.1sec. Afterwards he declared he was �flat out for the final few laps�. Rosberg�s Mercedes set a 1min 32.4sec on that nineteenth lap, meaning he could have probably posted a 1min 31sec at the business end if he were not 24 seconds ahead and had no need to punish his car.
This lap time alone is more ominous than Rosberg�s winning margin and it is currently foolhardy to oppose the Mercedes works team with reliability being the only question-mark over them.
Treble � Don�t Do It
Bookmakers do offer a �pole-win-fastest lap� treble scenario and many like to go that route. Admittedly you would have to presume either Hamilton�s or Rosberg�s Mercedes will complete the pole position part of the bargain but thereafter either of the duo could win the race and the fastest lap part of the treble is no forgone conclusion.
Rosberg set that fastest lap on lap 19 because he was ordered to open up a gap between himself and the car in second spot. Thereafter he had no need to punish the car or engine and simply maintained a safe comfortable advantage.
The most likely scenario remains one of the drivers racing for minor positions in the closing stages will post the day�s fastest time (at the stage the Mercedes drivers are probably managing a safe station at the front).
Just consider: In 2012 eleven different drivers claimed a �fastest lap� during the 20-race season; last year there were seven individual �fastest lap� claimants from the 19-race season. The �pole-win-fastest-lap� market never offers a price anywhere near its true probability of happening. It last happened here in 2009.
Win? Why Not
With the �fastest lap� and �treble� markets already ignored attention turns to the �winning margin�. This, however, is an inexact science especially with teammates in cars which look so superior to the remainder of the field.
�and then it smacks you in the face with the force of a sledgehammer. Who qualified on pole in Australia? Who started that race as an odds-on favourite? Who is the bookmaker�s 2/1 favourite to be crowned World Campion this season despite having no points on the board (and his teammate already has the maximum 25)?
With a superior car, a proven track record of outperforming his teammate and frequently being referred to as �the fastest driver on the grid�, my tissue had Lewis Hamilton priced-up at evens. Who needs the obscure markets when the win market is offering such rare value?
Yes, Hamilton�s car developed a misfire in Australia and was forced to retire but his team have identified the problem and have surely rectified it. It�s one less thing that can go wrong.
I�m normally loathed to back on a race so far from its start, but I sincerely doubt Lewis Hamilton will trade as big as 2/1 at any stage between now and the race start in Malaysia.
If he qualifies on pole again, I expect he will be trading at odds-on by the start of the race. This throws the door open for a �bet to lay� play or gives the opportunity to wade into some of Hamilton�s opponents creating a nice �win-win� portfolio on the race.
BET - 8 Points Lewis Hamilton 2/1 To Win Malaysian Grand Prix (Generally Available)
