Betfan Group Premium - Aintree Derek Potter Tips Day One

6th April 2017

 

FREE To Premium Members - Aintree Derek Potter Extra

It may not be the Greatest Show On Turf - I can only use that moniker once a year and Cheltenham has a lifetime pass on that one - but make no mistake, the three-day Aintree spectacular is becoming better all the time, mirroring the rejuvenation of its showcase race The Grand National itself. It starts off in scintillating fashion. A Grade 1 Novice Chase? BANG. A Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle? BANG. A Grade 1 Chase? BANG. A Grade 1 Hurdle? BANG BANG BANG BANG. It's certainly not an easy meeting to judge, partly because of the focus Cheltenham now takes; having just a three week gap between them means we have to consider just how much their Cheltenham efforts took out of some horses, and also hope that some of the trainers who avoided Cheltenham for various reasons were shrewd in their decisions.

The usual rules apply here - the aim is to inform and educate as well as merely tipping, so whilst I wouldn't deter anyone from getting stuck into the favourites, that's not what we're here for!

1:45 - Manifesto Novices' Chase, Grade 1, 2m3f200y. 
In case there were any doubts about just how much the quality has improved, consider that the BHA rules state any novice running here must have a minimum rating of 120; and then further consider that the lowest rated horse is 138. We'll start as we mean to go on, shall we? Like all the Grade 1s today, there is a very warm favourite, and it's very easy to make the case for Top Notch. Since reverting to fences after a decent 5th in the 2016 Champion Hurdle, he's only been beaten on debut in October over what now looks like an inadequate trip and then to the outstanding Yorkhill in the JLT last month. Given how highly I rate Yorkhill in spite of his rogue tendencies, it's absolutely outstanding form and if he runs his race he will win. But he's the first of the ones with a question mark about how much that effort might cost him for the remainder of the season, because these are animals, not machines. Cloudy Dream did extremely well to finish second in the Arkle at a big price, but I think he was slightly flattered by Charbel falling when trying to serve it up to Altior and also Altior not running quite to his brilliant best. I fancied Flying Angel at Cheltenham in the same race as Top Notch, and he was badly hampered by a messy fall in front of him - I wouldn't rule him out, whilst Max Ward is probably capable of more than his odds suggest. However, it's with FRODON we'll take a chance. This remarkably tough 5yo already has 9 Chase starts under his belt, winning 6 of them. He may well have finished second to Might Bite at Kempton on Boxing Day had both of them stayed on their hooves (neither did) and I think he's much better suited to this trip as he was a tired horse. He's won twice since and comes here relatively fresh having avoided Cheltenham.

Selection: FRODON win

2:20 - Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle, Grade 1, 2m209y. 
This doesn't quite have the same prestige as the Triumph, but it can also be more competitive as those 3 spring weeks can really bring out the best in the less exposed contenders. It will have to bring out a heck of a lot in any horse reopposing Defi Du Seuil who has yet to put a foot wrong in any of his hurdle starts. I have no interest in backing nor tipping him at 2/5 (although I wouldn't put you off putting him in a filthy double or treble), but we have to try and find a chink in that impressive armour. The one angle I can find is that Cheltenham is a demanding track, particularly for young horses. Having raced and won there 3 times prior to his Triumph demolition job, this was a clear advantage and he coped better than the rest. So could it be that a less demanding track on better ground (the watering certainly played a part on the latter two days of the Festival) will allow others to show their true colours more? And if so, which others?! Divin Bere and Flying Tiger were the runner-up and winner respectively of the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, and given the weight changes, I think the market has their chances right. Instead I'll take a flyer on FORTH BRIDGE for Her Majesty, who seems a new horse switched from the Flat to Hurdles under Charlie Longsdon (previously he was under the care of Michael Bell). He's won his last two starts, both on good ground, and I don't think the current good to soft will be unsuitable. He's improved from each of his races and Brian Hughes has a decent enough Aintree record to make him a decent each way shout at a big price.

Selection: FORTH BRIDGE each way

2:50 - Betway Bowl Chase, Grade 1, 3m210y. 
Those of us who follow racing year round love to speak about the narrative of a season, and such narrative centres around two brilliant old boys here, the 11-year-olds better known as Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti. Cue Card won this race last year after a crashing fall three from home put paid to his Gold Cup chances; he now looks to defend his crown after doing exactly the same this year. That may well have been Cue Card's last chance at winning a Gold Cup, whereas connections of Silviniaco Conti gave up that ghost a couple of years ago as he just didn't show his best at Cheltenham. Aintree, and this race, is another matter though - third in 2013, and winner in 2014 and 2015 before an unsuccessful switch to the National last year. This is his perfect distance and his perfect track, but there is every chance he's simply not the force of old. His win in 2014 came when he was rated 177; he's now off just 158 and would really have to turn back time to recapture old glories. Going back to Cue Card, he has been very hit and miss this season; you can forgive him his seasonal reappearance, he was then sublime at Haydock, before running below par in the King George (don't look at how close he was to Thistlecrack, look at how close he was to those behind him), sublime again at Ascot and then that fall at Cheltenham. So is it to be sublimity again? It would be nice but my preference is for EMPIRE OF DIRT, who wasn't a match for Un De Sceaux over 20 furlongs (nor was he even a match for the reopposing Aso), but I suspect Empire Of Dirt's absence from the Gold Cup was partly due to Outlander's (still) unfulfilled potential and partly because Michael O'Leary dearly wants to win the Ryanair Chase. This step back up to 3m should be much more suitable - after all, his form from the Irish Gold Cup when he was ¾ of a length behind a certain Sizing John over 3m stacks up quite nicely now... I'm still a big fan of Bristol De Mai and hope he runs to his best here, whilst Smad Place and Tea For Two will look to put disappointing Gold Cup runs behind them.

Selection: EMPIRE OF DIRT win

3:25 - Betway Aintree Hurdle, Grade 1, 2m4f. 
Hey you, you see that stable door that's shut? That's The New One's after connections have finally gone back up to 20 furlongs having realised his chances of winning a Grade One over 2 miles have bolted. Actually, I exaggerate a little, because this is actually The New One's fourth career attempt at this race, previously having figures of 21F. Even his ardent fans will struggle to see how in the blazes he goes about beating Buveur D'Air after his absolute thumping in the Champion Hurdle. I put up Buveur D'Air at Cheltenham for two main reasons; firstly, the 2016 Supreme Novices' form looked fantastic, and secondly in spite of his undoubted potential over his first two Chase starts he still looked to hurdle his fences. Nicky Henderson knew what he had and was rewarded appropriately with a stunning win. He is though a prohibitive price; another one to put in any dirty accas but I don't wish to take him on here. You simply can't not love My Tent Or Yours, runner-up in three Champion Hurdles, whilst Identity Thief needs this return to hurdles to rekindle the obvious spark he has.

Selection: NO BET

4:05 - Randox Health Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase, Class 2, 2m5f. 
And now for something completely different, with none of these horses aged younger than 9 and none of these jockeys being professionals (albeit that some of these amateurs are quite simply better than their professional counterparts). As ever in these races, we'll start with Jamie Codd. I am not a jockey, I have never been a jockey and I never will be a jockey. So what follows is not a criticism of these incredibly brave athletes, but I think with hindsight Jamie Codd would have had On The Fringe closer to the pace at Cheltenham. I say with hindsight, because during the race itself I was happy with where Codd had him positioned - but at On The Fringe's age, perhaps he takes a little longer to wind up now and needed stoking earlier. But Codd is a fine horseman - one of the best - to the extent that he tipped Labaik for the Supreme to much hilarity. And I think if On The Fringe is fully fit now, then he will be very hard to beat. Pacha Du Polder under Bryony Frost was superb at Cheltenham (perhaps that could have been the gelding's second win were it not for the Pendleton experiment last year) and must be a threat again. Those two dominate the betting as expected whilst Balnaslow put up a very brave performance at Cheltenham and could string them out here. We shall take a chance on BEAR'S AFFAIR however, who has won three times at Aintree and could be ready to come to the boil here for his new yard. He's a huge price and worth the risk in my opinion.

Selection: BEAR'S AFFAIR each way

4:40 - Betway Red Rum Handicap Chase, Grade 3, 1m7f176y. 
This looks a really competitive renewal, and I like the claims of Theinval and Dandridge, both of whom ran creditably in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham over a similar distance. Astre De La Cour has been well tipped elsewhere, and with good reason; his form looks solid and he likes flat tracks (it's pertinent that he's only run once in his career at Cheltenham, when he fell, and won on his only start to date over hurdles at Aintree). At bigger prices, Romain De Senam, Raven's Tower and Rock On Rocky are all appealing, whilst Foxtail Hill should make a go of it from the front. He didn't really run his true race at Cheltenham in the closing novice Chase on day one. It's another from that race we'll go with, however, in the form of DOUBLE W'S. He finished 9th that day, but he moved well through the field to lead 2 out before he faded up the hill like many before him. Back here over a shorter distance and a flatter track and I think he can go much closer for Malcolm Jefferson and Brian Hughes.

Selection: DOUBLE W'S each way

5:15 - Goffs Nickel Coin Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race, Grade 2, 2m209y. 
The bumper for mares, and I was hoping to see Cap Soleil declared, but it wasn't to be. Cap Soleil beat Petticoat Tails that day and on pure form through that race, Petticoat Tails assumes favouritism here. That certainly looks fair enough; she deserves to more prominent in the market than Sweetlittlemystery (winner of both her starts) and the youngster Shearling (winner of 3 of her 4 starts) although both are of interest. Polly's Pursuit and Mountain Park are both of interest - the latter in particular looks extremely unexposed - but if you're prepared to draw a line through her run in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, like I am, then you'll be prepared to give IRISH ROE another chance. She's still under the radar in my opinion, possibly due to unfashionable connections, and I think she can go well here.

Selection: IRISH ROE win

Horse Racing: SingleTotal Stake : 3.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-13:45 Aintree Frodon 7.00  6/1

Odds for this selection provided by Coral

Horse Racing: Each WayE/W Stake of 2pt(s) for a Total Stake of 4.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-14:20 Aintree Forth Bridge 15.00  14/1

Odds for this selection provided by Bet 365

Horse Racing: SingleTotal Stake : 5.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-14:50 Aintree Empire Of Dirt 3.50  5/2

Odds for this selection provided by SkyBet

Horse Racing: Each WayE/W Stake of 1pt(s) for a Total Stake of 2.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-16:05 Aintree Bear\'s Affair 26.00  25/1

Odds for this selection provided by William Hill

Horse Racing: Each WayE/W Stake of 2.5pt(s) for a Total Stake of 5.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-16:40 Aintree Double W\'s 6.50  11/2

Odds for this selection provided by Bet 365

Horse Racing: SingleTotal Stake : 3.00pts
Date Course Horse Advised Odds
06/04-17:15 Aintree Irish Roe 11.00  10/1

Odds for this selection provided by Paddy Power

Good Luck

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