Hi ,
England and Wales Can Progress From Group B
Three teams can still win Group B at Euro 2016 and all four can still qualify for the knockout rounds. England are clear favourites to top the section and set up a potential last 16 match against one of the third best placed teams from Group A, C or D. In the olden days when the European Championship finals involved 16 teams a group winner would meet a runner-up in the next round. The farce of 36 of 51 matches in the tournament eliminating just eight of the 24 teams is perfectly illustrated by this scenario. Tournaments lend themselves to a 16 or 32 team format.
Wales and Slovakia are in best shape to finish second in the group and then play the runners-up in Group F which could still be any of the four teams contesting that section. One feature of the first phase of matches at Euro 2016 is the lack of goals, especially in the first half of matches. In the first 18 fixtures no side had score more than two goals and only five matches ended with a winning margin of more than one goal. Fourteen of that sample produced less than three goals and there were four draws.
The FIFA world rankings are designed to be an accurate measure of team’s form and ability. Blindly backing the highest ranked team would have produced a small loss to level stakes in the three-way match markets. The rankings are weighted in favour of recent results and focus on tournaments and qualifying over the last four years. England play Slovakia in their third fixture and are 22 places above them in the current standings. Wales are three places above the Russian team they meet in their final fixture.
There is a relationship between present rankings and the next result. Kevin Pullen analysed the rankings system in the Racing Post’s guide to Euro 2016. He identified some link between ranking points and goals scored and put forward this observation:
“As a rule of thumb, 370 ranking points correspond to one goal. In games between teams separated by 370 ranking points the average number of goals scored by the higher-ranked teams is one more than the average number of goals scored by the lower ranked team’”
This statistical trend suggests England should beat Slovakia by one goal and Wales and Russia should draw. Scoring records and collateral form at the tournament to date leads to the conclusion that England should beat Slovakia 2-1 and Wales and Russia will draw one each.
The final table in Group B can be projected based on these predictions and would appear as follows:
Team Won Draw Lost For Against Points
England 2 1 0 5 3 7
Wales 1 1 1 4 4 4
Slovakia 1 0 2 4 5 3
Russia 0 2 1 3 4 2
England would play at the Parc des Princes on Saturday 25th June at 17:00 against a team that finished third in their group while Wales would play in Nice on Monday 27th June at 20:00 possibly against Portugal. That fixture would bring together Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo in the battle of the Real Madrid stars.
It’s interesting to project results and standings but if football and sport in general was an exact science we would all win the battle to beat the bookies but that is unrealistic. However, the double on England to beat Slovakia and Wales to draw with Russia pays 5/1 and that seems like a decent bet as long as Raheem Sterling does not play for England.
If Sterling had appeared in the second half against Wales Roy Hodgson would have looked like the worst manager in the history of international football. Joe Hart’s gaffe could just about be forgiven but Sterling had no place on the field in a major football tournament. Every armchair and beer stool pundit in the country knew Sterling and Harry Kane had to be replaced by Sturridge and Vardy. They should both keep their places against Slovakia.
England’s campaign was following a familiar pattern at half-time against Wales. Rob Green against the United States in the first match of the World Cup in 2010 came to mind when Hart threw Bale’s 40 yard free-kick into the net. Over two matches England would have been value for two wins and the ridiculous nature of the tournament format means they could have still qualified from the group after a draw and defeat in the opening two matches.
England are the best team in Group B and can beat Slovakia by more than one goal. A draw will suffice but far better to play on the front foot and maintain the momentum. Now that Sterling’s international career is confined to the record books England can turn Adam Lallana’s intelligent play and Kyle Walker’s surges into goals. A win would set up a relatively easy fixture in the next round and then everything is possible. Perhaps Italy are the only team to fear as everybody else has looked ordinary. A knockout match against Northern Ireland would be intriguing.
Wales are good enough to avoid defeat against Russia and a win would not affect the finishing positions assuming England beat Slovakia. Bale will get chances to score from a free-kick and could become what must be the first player in a major tournament to score from a free kick from outside the penalty in all three group matches. Russia are boring and ordinary and maybe that is why a small majority of their fans are looking for kicks elsewhere. The World Cup in Russia in 2018 looks like being a joyless affair.
England can head to that tournament on the crest of a wave as champions of Europe and that process can continue by them heading the group and winning their next match in the round of the last 16. Wales can also progress but beating Portugal may be beyond them.
Best Wishes,
BetFan
