8th July 2017

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Garcia Is The Stats Pick For The Open Championship....

Without wishing to sound rude wind could be a massive factor in the British Open at Royal Birkdale. It's a classic links course at the behest of sea breezes and even on a relatively still day weather conditions can make or break a tournament for players on the wrong side of the draw. If Sergio Garcia plays at the right time over the first two days he is the player most suited to the course and conditions at the Open.

Garcia first contended a major championship in the 1999 USPGA Championship. Tiger Woods was just too good on that occasion but it seemed just a matter of time before Garcia won one of the four most prestigious titles. There were several near misses and at one point the player himself doubted he had what it takes to be a major champion. Garcia has a solid record in the Open and should win it one day.

However, its easy to say that for a player in his 20's because if he maintains form and fitness he will have a decade or more of playing in majors at his peak. However, Garcia is now 37 and it's rare for a player to win majors after turning 40. It's not impossible if everything falls into place and Darren Clarke, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson have won the Open during their fifth decade. Garcia has been on the road for 20 years so may not wish to prolong his career after reaching the big 4-0!

The Open Championship is played on a rota of ten course but they are all in links in nature. Traditional coastal courses like Birkdale are always used for the oldest championship in the sport. In calm conditions they have few defences but a course can present a totally different test when the wind blows. The strength and direction of the wind can transform holes and a birdie chance then becomes a question of survival and walking off the green with a par on the scorecard.

The par for the Open will be 70 and the Birkdale championship course measures about 7,100 yards which is short in length by modern standards. The big hitters won't have an advantage on the track that puts a premium on accuracy over distance. Windy conditions can dry out a course which makes greens hard and difficult to hit. Finding the putting surfaces in the correct number of shots is key and Garcia excels in this area. He was third for GIR on the European Tour at the time of writing.

Iron play is massively important in the Open and even more so when there is wind. Hitting knock down shots is major requirement for good scoring at Birkdale. The ball when hit at a reduced height lessens the chance of the wind affecting the flight towards the green. Garcia is a brilliant iron player with all the shots in his game. He can hit the ball high but also adapt with a lower flight when the conditions demand. He has the technique to knock down his irons and that's a huge positive in the context of the Open Championship.

Links courses feature greens that are above average in size. Players will have plenty of long putts and avoiding a bogey is more important than converting a birdie chance. Garcia has struggled with his short putting in the past but is excellent when it comes to two putting a long distance from the hole. Lag putting is in his box of tricks which means that's another tick on the list of attributes required to win an Open. After winning the Masters the monkey is now off Garcia's back and he has the perfect profile for potential Open champions.

Rick Elliott