Lucky Lou's Longshot Club

Lucky Lou in a red cardigan and polka-dot headscarf at a mint-green café, a race finishing on the course behind her
£9.99 first month (once per person), then £35 every 28 days · cancel any time · 18+
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Who I am

Twenty years I ran a café opposite Walthamstow dogs.

Everything I know, I learned pouring tea for punters.

Bacon rolls from six, tea stewed the colour of a house brick, and half of east London through the door before the first race. Bookies' runners, old boys with their form books folded in their coat pockets, the lad who drove a horsebox and knew which ones had travelled badly. I didn't have a bet for the first five years. I just listened, my lovelies.

What I learned was this. The favourites were everyone's business — every paper, every pundit, every mug in the queue had an opinion. The big prices were nobody's business. And that's where the mistakes were.

I'm not lucky, whatever it says on the sign. I just only ever play one horse a day, and it's always at a price. And I'll be straight with you from the off: longshots lose more often than they win. Most days, even a good one gets beat. That's what a big price means, and anyone who tells you different is after your money.

What I won't do is send you five outsiders so one of them goes in and I can shout about it. One horse, or none. If nothing's right, I'll tell you to keep your money in your purse, and I'll put the kettle on.

Lucky Lou
A morning with Lou

From the first kettle to the off.

6.00

Kettle on, papers out

Every card of the day spread on the table. I'm only reading the prices from 8/1 up.

6.45

Going and non-runners

Ground changes overnight, and so do the prices. One missing favourite can change a whole race.

7.30

Hunting the forgotten one

Back from a break, down in class, back on its ground, or a yard that's woken up.

8.15

One or none

If I can't say why the reason it's long has gone, it's none. Simple as that.

8.45

The email lands

The horse, the race, the price, the stake — and the whole story in plain English.

1.30

Off they go

Roughly when the afternoon starts. Settled in the open that evening, win or lose.

The method, explained

Every longshot is long for a reason.
I only want the ones where the reason's gone.

A horse is 20/1 because most people have looked at it and said no. Usually they're right. But sometimes the thing that put them off isn't there any more — and the price hasn't caught up. Here's how I sort one from the other.

Why it's longOff the track 200 days

Gone, if the yard has had others go well first time back this month, and the horse has won fresh before.

Reason gone

Why it's longBeaten a mile last time

Gone, if that run was on ground it hates and today it's got the going it wants.

Reason gone

Why it's longPoor lately, in better races

Gone, if it's dropping in class to meet horses it can actually beat.

Reason gone

Why it's longIt's just slow

Still there. Some horses are 25/1 because they're 25/1 horses. I leave those alone, however tempting the price.

Still there

Why only one a day?

Because a longshot needs room. Send you five outsiders a day and you're paying for a lot of losers to find the odd one that goes in — the good days get swallowed by the rest.

One horse, only when the reason has gone, and only at a proper price. Some weeks that's four or five bets. Some weeks it's one. I don't fill a quota.

What 16/1 really means. A win bet at 16/1 has to come in about once in every seventeen goes just to break even. That's a lot of losing days in between, and I'd rather you knew it now. Each way softens the blow a little — see the sums below.

There's a seat by the window

One horse, or none — in your inbox by 8.45am.

Pull up a chair — £9.99
£9.99 first month (once per person), then £35 every 28 days · cancel any time · Secure checkout by PayPal
How I pick

The house rules.

1

8/1 to 33/1

Nothing shorter — that's not a longshot. Nothing longer — that's a lottery ticket.

2

One horse, or none

Never two. A day with no bet is a day you keep your money.

3

The reason has to have gone

A big price on its own means nothing. I need to be able to tell you why it's wrong.

4

Each way when it's worth it

Each way in fields of eight or more, win only otherwise. One point, and two only on a truly special day.

A worked example

What lands in your inbox — and what it pays.

Example only · not a tip · no result claimed

MISS TEACUP MABEL

4.10 · handicap · 14 runners · 1 point each way @ 16/1

Hasn't run for 212 days, which is why she's 16s. But her yard has had three back from long breaks go close this month, she's 6lb lower than when she last won, and it's her ground at last.

What worries me: she might just need the run. If she's blowing at the two-furlong pole, that's that.

Made-up horse, made-up race. It shows the format, nothing more.

How the bill adds up

One point each way is two bets — one point to win, one point to place — so two points in total. A 14-runner handicap usually pays a quarter of the odds for the first three.

  • She wins17 + 5 = 22 pts back
  • She's 2nd or 3rd5 pts back
  • She's unplacednothing back

That's 20 points up if she wins, 3 points up if she places, and 2 points lost if she doesn't. The last one is the most likely, my lovelies — that's longshots.

Questions

Overheard at the counter.

What time does it come?
By 8.45am on racing days, to the email you use at checkout. Not there? Have a look in spam and mark it safe.
What's a point? How much should I put on?
A point is whatever you choose — £1, £2, £5. Pick an amount you won't miss when it loses, because most of them will, and stick to it.
Which bookie? And what if the price has moved?
Any bookie you like. I give the price I can see when I write. If it's come in under 8/1 by the time you look, it's not a longshot any more — I'd leave it.
What happens on a no-bet day?
You get a short note saying so, and why. No filler horse to make up the numbers.
Why is the first month £9.99?
It's an introductory price for new members, once per person. After that it's £35 every 28 days, and you can cancel any time.
How do I cancel?
Any time, from your PayPal account. No notice, no phone call, no hard feelings.
Have you got a record?
It starts from day one. Every horse goes up with its price and stake, and gets settled in the open, win or lose.
Join the club
£9.99 first month (once per person), then £35 every 28 days · cancel any time
Pull up a chair — £9.99
Secure checkout by PayPal · debit or credit card

My record starts from day one. Every bet is published and settled in the open, win or lose. Nothing is hidden and nothing is added afterwards.

£9.99first month (once per person), then £35
Pull up a chair