Kenny Crossbar's Terrace Tips

My story

Two seasons in the old Fourth Division. Thirty years scouting grounds you'd need a map to find.

I was a centre-half. Not a good one, but a big one. Two seasons in the old Fourth Division, a lot of muddy Tuesday nights in towns that don't have a railway station any more, and then my knee went in a tackle I still say was a foul.

After that I scouted. Thirty years of it, for clubs you've heard of and clubs you haven't — stood on terraces in the rain with a pencil behind my ear, watching a left-back nobody else was watching. You learn things doing that. Which grounds away sides hate. Which manager has lost the dressing room three weeks before his chairman notices. Which club is quietly saving its best eleven for the cup.

"The bookies price the top flight to the penny. Go down to League Two and they're guessing. That's where I live."

The bookmakers put whole rooms of people on the big games. Down in League Two, the National League and the Scottish Championship, the prices get far less attention — and they miss things a man with thirty years of phone numbers doesn't.

What I won't do: I won't give you a bet to fill an email. I won't tip a match because it's on the telly. I won't dress up a hunch as a certainty. If there's nothing worth having, I'll say so, and you can watch the match with your money still in your pocket.

— Kenny

A Saturday with Kenny

From the first cuppa to the first whistle.

6.45
Papers and phone-ins
Kettle on, the local papers and last night's club phone-ins. That's where you hear the centre-forward's been dropped for turning up late.
8.00
The phone round
The old scouting lot. A kit man here, a physio's mate there. Nobody tells me what they shouldn't — they just tell me who looked sharp in training and who didn't.
9.00
The prices
I go down the match odds looking for the one that's wrong. Usually it's a side the market still rates off last season's table.
9.40
Write it up
The pick, the price, the stake and why, in plain English — and what's worrying me about it.
By 10
The email lands
In your inbox by 10am. Plenty of time to get on before the prices move.
3.00
Kick-off
Then I'm like everyone else — shouting at a referee who can't hear me.

The method, explained

Four things the league table won't tell you.

Team news

The biggest thing there is. A side without its two centre-halves isn't the same side, whatever the table says. I read the press conferences and the local reporters, and I weigh who's missing against who's filling in.

Managers under pressure

A manager three defeats from the sack plays scared. A new man gets a bounce for three or four games, then it wears off. And a dressing room that's gone shows on the pitch long before it shows in the results.

Home and away

The table lumps them together. I pull them apart. Some sides travel like they've never left the house. Some grounds — the long coach trip, the tight pitch, the wind off the sea — beat visitors before a ball's kicked.

The lower leagues

Below the top flight the prices are slower to move. A lad back from injury, a loan player recalled, a cup replay on Tuesday — the market misses it. I don't. I've been ringing those clubs for thirty years.

Illustration · invented club

How I read a team sheet

1Pryce — steady. Nothing to see.
5Dawson — suspended. A seventeen-year-old in for him.
6Hale — suspended too. Both centre-halves gone.
7Okafor — back from a hamstring. Won't last the hour.
9Tully — three in three. The only thing working.
MThe manager — four defeats on the spin. Board meets Monday.

My read: the home side is worth a look — if the price is right.

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How I pick

Ground regulations. No exceptions.

Team news first

Who's injured, who's suspended, who's being rested for the cup on Tuesday.

Watch the dugout

Managers on the brink, new-manager bounces, dressing rooms that have gone.

Result only

Home, away or the draw. One pick a match, 1 or 2 points. No clever extras.

No angle, no bet

Thin fixtures or nothing to go on, you get told so. A quiet day costs you nothing.

A worked example

The kind of note you get — and what it pays.

Example only · not a tip · no result claimed

Harbour Town v Millbrook Rovers

Saturday 3pm · Harbour Town to win · 1 point @ 2/1

Millbrook have both centre-halves suspended and their manager's been on borrowed time since August. Harbour Town don't lose much in front of their own lot, and they'll smell it.

What worries me: Harbour Town's keeper drops one a game. If he's picked, I'll be watching through my fingers.

Made-up clubs, made-up match. It shows the format, nothing more.

The sums, in plain English

A point is your own unit — whatever you're comfortable with. Say yours is £5. A 1-point bet at 2/1 means £5 on Harbour Town to win.

Your stake (1 point)	£5
Winnings at 2/1	£10
Back if it wins	£15

If it loses, or it's a draw, you lose the £5. A 2-point bet at the same price is £10 on, £30 back if it wins. That's all a point is.

What you get

In this issue.

The emailIn your inbox by 10am, every morning.
SelectionsNought to three. Match result only — home, away or the draw.
Each pickThe team, the price to take and the stake, 1 or 2 points.
The reasoningTwo or three lines on why, and the one thing that worries me.
No-bet daysYou still hear from me, with an honest line on why I'm sitting it out.
The leaguesEnglish and Scottish football, Premier League down to the National League.

Your questions

Letters to the editor.

When does the email arrive?

By 10am each morning. That leaves you time to place a bet well before the early kick-offs.

What's a point, and how much should I stake?

A point is your unit — £1, £5, whatever suits you. I stake 1 or 2 points. Pick a size you'd shrug off losing, and stick to it.

What if the price has moved?

Prices move. I give the one on offer when I write. If it's shortened a lot, you're allowed to leave it — I'd rather you did than take a price I wouldn't.

What happens on no-bet days?

You still get an email, telling you there's nothing worth having and why. Keeping your money is part of the job.

Why is the first month £9.99?

It's an introductory price for new members, once per person. After that it's £35 every 28 days, and you can cancel any time.

How do I cancel?

Any time, through your PayPal account. No lock-in, no phone call, no hard feelings.

Is there a record?

It starts from day one. Every selection is published and settled in the open, win or lose, so you can judge me on it.

Your place on the terrace

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