28th December 2018

Hi ,

It’s the fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival on Saturday. The feature race is the Ryanair Hurdle which is a trial for the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. On collateral form with Buveur D’Air the favourite should be Melon but the shortest priced horse in the ante post betting is Samcro who still has a great deal to prove at this level. The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park on Boxing Day produced an upset when Verdana Blue beat Buveur D’Air and the winner was a big mover in the betting for the hurdle race that matters most.

The betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup took a new shape after the King George on Wednesday. The race was won by Clan Des Obeaux but Thistlecrack ran a great trial for the Gold Cup. The horse beat the market leaders by some distance but was no match for the winner in the straight. Paul Nicholls was winning the race for a tenth time and in Clan Des Obeaux he has a live chance to win the Gold Cup for the fifth time and with the fourth different horse.

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Presenting Percy shortened in the Gold Cup betting without running. Might Bite and Native River couldn’t cope with the pace in the King George and were both well beaten. Turning into the straight Thistlecrack appeared to be going well but came up short behind Clan Des Obeaux. However, in the context of the Gold Cup it was an impressive run and the horse could show enough progress in March to win the Gold Cup. Presenting Percy runs at Leopardstown on Thursday.

There were some fluctuations in the betting for the Champion Hurdle after Buveur D’Air was beaten by his stable mate. The two times winner has drifted to odds-against but Verdana Blue has come into the reckoning. After beating Samcro at Newcastle Buveur D’Air looked a certainty to win the Champion Hurdle for the third year in a row. The horse is still the highest rated hurdler in training in Britain and Ireland but the infallibility has gone. A serious jumping error at the third last hurdle may have been crucial but Verdana Blue showed a great attitude to overhaul the favourite.

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Melon was beaten by much fewer lengths than Buveur D’Air in the Champion Hurdle in March than Samcro at Newcastle last month. Sommerville Lad was a disappointment in that race and a subsequent run. The winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival this year is a better horse in the spring and could still be a factor in the Champion Hurdle. Laurina is the fly in the ointment as she will receive a mare’s allowance of seven pounds which could be key. The Ryanair Hurdle should identify Ireland’s leading contender for the most prestigious hurdle race of the year and some reputations could be damaged.

Despite being well beaten by Buveur D’Air Samcro is still being targeted at the Champion Hurdle. A season in novice chases is being put on hold and connections believe their horse can still be competitive in the Champion Hurdle. Apple’s Jade is in the same ownership and also trained by Gordon Elliott. The mare gets the weight allowance in the Champion Hurdle but she could run in the mare’s race at Cheltenham. Bedrock has beaten Samcro this season and looks the each way value in the Ryanair Hurdle as long as eight runners or more go to post so there are three each way payout paces. The race sponsors own Samcro and Apple’s Jade but the win money could go to the owners of Laurina.

Best Wishes,

BetFan