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Today's Sports Betting Preview - By Rick Elliott
Which TV Match Ends 1-1?
Here are three facts that are irrefutable:
About one third of matches in the Premier League end in draws.
The average number of goals per match this season is less than three.
The most popular goals total for any team is one.
Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it will happen again in the future. Despite experts and pundits telling us what will happen in certain situations nobody really knows. Did the commentators predicting the result of remaining or staying in the EU back Leicester City to win the Premier League at 5,000/1 because they seem to think they know what will happen in the future? If so they can tell me which horse will win the Grand National.
Sports bettors make the best estimate based on past results and form allied to current circumstances. The numbers suggest one of today’s three fixtures in the Premier League will be a one-all draw. That’s not guaranteed but a projection based on past results even though it’s a relatively small sample in the whole scheme of things. Correct score betting is fraught with danger but the odds can be enticing.
A stalemate in which both teams score just once is usually about 6/1 but much fewer than one in seven matches end with this score and therein lies the bookmakers built-in theoretical profit from the their odds. Punters get paid out at smaller odds than the true probabilities and that’s why you “never see a poor bookie”. In reality the poor ones go out of business so that statement is basically true. Bookmakers do get things wrong but make money by being right 50% of the time. Punters must be right more than half the time to beat the bookies.
It's 11/2 with William Hill that today’s match between Huddersfield and Bournemouth ends ONE-EACH!
Best Wishes,
BetFan
