20th March 2015

Liverpool Can Win the Battle of the North West Giants

The biggest match in English football will go a long way to determining which side finishes fourth in the Premier League and qualifies for the Champions League and which side misses out. The north west derby between Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday brings together the two most successful clubs in England and the fiercest of rivals.

The cities of Liverpool and Manchester are just 35 miles apart but they could be at either ends of the world when it comes to local harmony which basically does not exist. Scousers and Mancs have a love hate relationship which goes deeper than football and has a cultural and economic context.

Liverpool thrived as a port with trade to the United States and the West Indies. Manchester’s prosperity was based on cotton and the Industrial Revolution. Times changed and both cities had to adapt but there is resentment in Liverpool that Manchester moved forwards and had more advantages. Both cities are now booming and their most famous football clubs are on a decent run of results.

The Beatles are just about the most famous pop group ever and they came from Liverpool. Manchester gave the world Oasis which were no more than the Bootleg Beatles. Liam Gallagher named his son Lennon and copied his tunes. Liverpool spawned Brookside but Manchester is the home of Coronation Street. As an economic area the combined conurbations could take on London but that will never happen.

The two cities are in a geographical area that could be the best for sport across the globe. Within easy travelling distance there are four Premier League football teams, some of the best links golf courses in Britain and the home of the Grand National, the most famous horse race in the world. The clubs are also known around the world for the Munich Air Disaster and Hillsborough.

Liverpool won the old First Division 18 times but have never won the Premier League. They all but won the title last season until Steven Gerrard slipped in the crucial match at home to Chelsea. His club have won the European Cup and Champions League five times and the old UEFA Cup on three occasions. Liverpool have won seven FA Cups and one more League Cup and the pre-season charity fixture 15 times.

Manchester United were the first English club to win the European Cup and also won two Champions Leagues during the Alex Ferguson era. When he took over as manager in1986 one of his main objectives was to knock Liverpool off their perch. That has been achieved as the club has now won 20 titles in addition to 11 FA Cups. United have won the League Cup four times and the Charity and Community Shield 20 times, though the honour has been shared in four years.

The fixture is one of the oldest in the history of English football dating back to 1895 when United were known as Newton Heath. The first match between the sides under their current names was in 1905 and overall there have been 174 matches. Liverpool have won the fixture 60 times, United 69 times and there have been 45 draws. Liverpool average 1.30 goals per match while United have scored at a rate of 1.37 goals per fixture.

Since the start of the 2010/2011 season the clubs have met 10 times, one match of which was in the FA Cup and League Cup. United have won six of those matches and Liverpool have recorded four wins. Both teams scored in six matches but none of the last four which ended with one of the sides winning to nil. Seven games have produced more than 3 goals and the average number of goals in these ten fixtures has been 2.6, slightly above the average across the Premier League in its history.

Both teams are on a decent run of results but Liverpool have been by far the most impressive since the start of the year. The nadir of their season was losing 3-0 to United at Old Trafford in December but since then Brendan Rodgers has found a style of play that suits the individuals in his squad. They look a more solid unit than last season’s version which relied heavily on Luis Suarez up front and Steven Gerard from midfield. Jordan Henderson has raised his game in the absence of the club captain and talisman.

In Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho Liverpool have found two gems who belie their slender physiques with tremendous skill and pace. The Liverpool defence is now looking more solid than earlier in the season and Simon Mignolet has rediscovered his best form. The net result is an outfit that are the form team of the league and the manager has not ruled out second place. Beating United will be crucial in that context, not only for the three points but also the boost to confidence and momentum.

Before United’s match at home to Tottenham last weekend they would be going into the fixture with Liverpool second best on form. In beating the Londoners 3-0 the Manchester team looked like an Alex Ferguson 11 and not under the direction of Louis Van Gaal. That one performance can change everything but up until then the players were not performing for the man in charge who has no rapport with his assistant, Ryan Giggs.

The Galactico approach was not working and Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao have been poor contributors for the money they were paid for and currently earn in wages. On the plus side Wayne Rooney continues to deliver as he gets closer to Bobby Charlton’s club scoring record while Michael Carrick is still a calming influence just in front of the back four. David De Gea is now just about the best goalkeeper in the world but it must be a concern that he has to produce man of the match performances so often.

The gap between the sides after this match can be five in favour of United, one in favour of Liverpool or a status quo of two if there is a draw. United can’t keep playing poorly and not lose while Liverpool are on a great run of form and results. The Premier League can be unpredictable but in this case the recent trends can continue which means a win at Anfield for Liverpool.