Hi ,
Moore and O’Brien Can Complete Oaks/Derby Double With Minding and The Gurkha
The Derby picture is still unclear after no leading contender emerged from the trials but Ryan Moore’s ride for Aidan O’Brien will probably start favourite and that horse could be The Gurkha. The outcome of the Oaks looks more straight forward and the same team look good things to do the double with Minding who has produced the best form for a filly this season to date. So Mi Dar misses the race which takes something away from the most important Classic for three year old fillies.
There is an old saying in racing that placed in the Guineas and first in the Derby and if that happens this year Massaat will win the most famous Flat race in the world. The horse was second behind Galileo Gold beaten by one and a half lengths in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the winner is unlikely to run in the Blue Riband race of the turf at Epsom on the first Saturday in June. Ribchester was third at Newmarket but is not quoted in betting for the Derby.
Midterm was the winter favourite for the Derby but disappointed in the Dante Stakes at York. That race has become the most significant trial and the winner, Wings Of Desire, became the new favourite for the famous Classic. However, The Gurkha is the new market leader after winning the French 2,000 Guineas by more than five lengths. The horse is trained by O’Brien so Moore will have first pick for the Derby and if he rides The Gurkha that could be a tip in itself.
Moore described The Gurkha’s win in France as a “demolition” and the race was the most visibly appealing of the trials around Europe for the Derby. The horse has had surgery for colic and had only won a maiden at Navan before winning the French version of the colt’s Classic over one mile. O’Brien, who has now won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) four times, commented on The Gurkha’s future when quoted in the Racing Post as saying:
“We always had it in our head he’d come here and then could go on to the French Derby or obviously Epsom, or Ascot. It’s a decision the lads (Coolmore syndicate owners) will make but he does have a lot of speed. He quickened up well and lengthened, so you’d be delighted. We always thought he’d get a mile and quarter. You’re never sure after that, but usually horses who get a mile and a quarter might have a chance of getting a mile and a half”
Form experts made an assessment after the race in France and raised doubts that The Gurkha has the stamina to win the Derby. His immediate pedigrees suggest a mile would be the best trip but further down the generations the breeding offers hope that The Gurkha will be effective over the Derby trip of 12 furlongs. The French 2,000 Guineas showed that The Gurkha has the talent to win the Derby and the horse looks the most likely winner especially if Moore decides to take the ride. He has won the Derby two times, most recently in 2013 riding Ruler Of The World trained by O’Brien.
The jockey considered to be the best in the world would be completing an Epsom Classic double if Minding wins the Oaks on the previous day. The race was looking like being a showdown with So Mi Dar but that horse is lame and won’t be risked at Epsom. Minding is the clear pick on form and it will take an outstanding filly to beat her. Ballydoyle was second to Minding in the 1,000 Guineas and is unlikely to reverse the form in the Oaks. Somehow was no more than competent when winning her trial at Chester and Moore will probably ride Minding in the fillies’ Classic.
Minding is well clear of the opposition on ratings for the Oaks. On Topspeed ratings she has four pounds in hand and a Racing Post Rating of six pounds more than her nearest rival which is Ballydoyle. Minding has already shown a level of form superior to a typical winner of the Oaks but could get away with not running to her best level and still be too good for the rest of the field. So Mi Dar would have provided a test but in that horse’s absence Minding should win the Oaks under Moore who can also win the Derby the next day aboard The Gurkha.
Best Wishes,
BetFan
