Three shops and a pitch at half the northern tracks. I never patted a horse in my life and I never lost a penny to one. I lost it to the handful of punters who only bet when the price was wrong.
How a race reads to me
A horse isn't brave or unlucky or well handicapped. It's a number. The exchange tells me what its real chance is. The bookmaker tells me what he'll pay. When he pays over the odds, that's a bet. When he doesn't, there isn't one, however lovely the animal looks in the paddock.
| Race | Horse | True price | Best on offer | With | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plumpton 16:38 | Porridge | 34.0 | 51.0 | Bet365 | +33.5% |
| Hamilton 16:00 | Lucky Camino | 12.0 | 17.0 | Bet365 | +27.1% |
| Newbury 15:20 | Momentsofsurrender | 36.0 | 51.0 | BetVictor | +26.8% |
| Newmarket 15:45 | Sierra Sands | 8.6 | 12.0 | Bet365 | +26.1% |
| Newcastle 16:10 | Park Lane Penny | 6.4 | 9.0 | Sky Bet | +24.2% |
| Hamilton 17:00 | Woottons Gal | 8.6 | 12.0 | Ladbrokes | no bet |
What the money says the horse's chance really is, taken off the exchange where people bet against each other.
The biggest price any bookmaker will lay me. If it isn't bigger than the true price, he's charging me for the privilege.
The difference, and the only reason I ever have a bet. Under it, I don't play. That line at the bottom happens more often than the others.
What a bookmaker calls the overround
Add up the chances of every horse in a race and it comes to 100 per cent. One of them has to win. But add up the chances the bookmaker's prices imply, and it comes to nearer 118. That extra 18 is his wages, taken off the top of every race, whoever wins.
Most days the book is right
And on those days I'll tell you so in one line and go and do something else. If you want a man who finds you four bets every single afternoon, there are plenty about, and they're the reason I could afford three shops.
One to four bets a day · win or each way · no accumulators, ever
You get the horse, the price, where to get it, and the stake. No stories about gallops. No trainer gossip. If I can't tell you why the price is wrong in one sentence, there's no bet.
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The record starts today. Every selection dated, priced and settled in the open, winners and losers alike. I'm not asking anyone for money without something to argue with.
Vic Vyle v Charlie Weaver
VicBacks a horse when the bookmaker has the price wrong. That's the whole method and it fits on a postcard.
Charlie WeaverRings stables at quarter to six and backs what his friends fancy. Lovely man. Being handled, and doesn't know it.
Two records, side by side, settled in public. At the big festivals we take the same meeting head to head. He'll have his days. So will I. The book keeps score.