Posted on 28th July 2018 @ 10:30 am
Greyhound racing in Britain has a format that has not changed for many years. In terms of the number of active tracks the sport appears to be in decline. However, Racing Post Greyhound TV shows live racing every night so the sport must be doing something right. Every race involves six dogs who run from traps and statistics can be used to identify runners to lay in graded races.
Each track employs a handicapper who assesses the relative merits of dogs based at the track. They are assigned places in graded races baaed on their ability and the best dogs race from the best traps. Statistically Trap 1 and Trap 6 provide most winners because the dogs are best positioned to avoid trouble in running. Runners from Traps 2 to 5 are more likely to bump into each other at the first bend.
If the dog running from Trap 1 starts the race well and takes the first bend in front of the rest of the field the race can be over. A favourite that “pins the lids” (breaks well) from the inside trap will be hard to catch and can gain a winning advantage over the first 50 metres of the race. The other dogs will be scrambling for position around the first bend and there could be interference.
The dogs drawn wide on the outside can drift further out to avoid trouble in running while the other four runners must fight for a good position as they head into the back straight. Statistics show that runners from Trap 2 and Trap 5 are more likely to have their runs disrupted by collisions and these dogs can be out of a race in the early stages. Money can be made opposing dogs running from these traps.
It is best to focus on graded races rather than heats in open competitions. The form is more reliable and the dogs are exposed. They are racing at their true level while in open races their might be little collateral form. If you looking to lay dogs to make money you should focus on graded races but ignore Grade 1 and Grade 10 level as these are the extremes and the statistics do not hold up as well as in the other grades.
There are trap statistics online which show the winning percentages at each track. We are not concerned with Trap 1 and Trap 6 but we are interested in the statistics for the other four traps. You should identify the trap that has produced fewest winners in the calendar year. If two or more traps have the same winning percentage use results for second place finishes to determine the trap number to lay.
Race cards are published in the Racing Post or on websites online. You have identified the dogs to lay but if the forecast starting price is more than 6/1 these dogs are eliminated. You should also ignore any greyhound that finished first or second on the last start and disregard dogs that recorded the best time over the race distance on the last run. There will be about 6 qualifying races at each meeting and you will now have a list of dogs to lay.
You can apply a level stake strategy or use a compounding bank. Your lay stake will be to lose a fixed amount which goes up during a winning run and drops during a period of losing bets. You are laying dogs running from traps 2,3,4 and 5 so generally are opposing the slowest dogs who are most likely to find trouble in running. Over time this strategy will make you steady profits when you want a dog not to win.
Filed Under: Betfan, Greyhound Racing, money, Racing Post, Statistically Trap