22nd May 2017
Hi ,
I’ve got something a bit different today. I’m going to look at the problem of finding winners in racing.
In fact this can be related to finding winners in any form of sports betting.
There is one thing that you need to find regular winners. It's something that's incredibly powerful.
And...
It’s what the majority of punters lack.
In fact, you can make profits by implementing this alone!
What you must use when looking for winners is…
COMMON SENSE.
Common sense is not something that usually goes hand in hand with punters in a betting shop. In fact I would go as far to say that common sense seldom enters a betting shop.
Anybody who has a decent grasp of horse racing should be able to employ common sense to, at the very least, allow them to break even.
Common sense tells us that…
• We can’t win every bet even if we want to
• We aren’t going to make thousands of pounds per week starting with £20
• It is possible to make a profit
So what do I mean by a common sense approach?
I mean that we look at a race intellectually and stop our emotions from getting involved.
Easier said than done I know, but if you can then you’re able to change your fortunes almost overnight.
And, best of all... It can be applied to any race!
Let’s look at an example 5 furlong race with 6 runners of low quality.
We don’t need any more information than that and immediately we can deduce…
• It is a sprint race, so speed will be more important than stamina
• It is low quality and therefore quite open
Do we want to bet on horses that have never won before in an open race?
Absolutely not!
Not unless the market is telling us very strongly that we should.
That immediately removes two of the runners leaving us with four horses.
Next, we would like a horse who's raced well or won on the same ground over a similar distance.
That removes another runner leaving us just three horses.
Of these three, two have not performed well recently which leaves us with…
…just one strong runner and two potential contenders.
Have we done anything special or used some kind of special knowledge?
No. We just used common sense.
This example was in fact a real race and the strong runner came first and one of contenders placed.
Now I haven’t included screenshots for you to follow because I don’t want you to take away that this is an exact method to replicate.
The purpose of this article today is to show that if you use common sense, and nothing else, you can find winners.
Here are some things you should consider when looking at a race:
• What is a horse going to need most to win this race e.g. speed, stamina etc…
• Find out which don’t have it and remove them
• Don’t bet on horses who have never won unless there is a very good reason e.g. very strong in the market
• Find the horses that have the strongest factor required to win the race
• Find the horses that have shown they can win on similar conditions
• Look for horses that have been improving
• Don’t be looking for just one horse. Betting on two, three or even four is absolutely fine as long as they make you money!
Take your time, don’t rush and use common sense and I guarantee you will see your profits increase almost immediately.
Best Wishes,
Michael Wilding
