8th April 2017
FREE To Premium Members - Aintree Derek Potter Extra
Yesterday was an odd day; our handicap selections were frankly poor, Might Bite was brilliant (as was the runner-up Whisper), River Wylde didn't run to his best, Colin Tizzard's stable bounced back in fine style with Pingshou, the excellent Fox Norton and the unfancied Ultra Gold. Constantine Bay ran a remarkable race in 4th, looking under pressure from the early stages and never looking comfortable. To get so close to a smart winner in the circumstances is encouraging. And finally, Western Ryder came to win his race but Richard Johnson gave his 33/1 winner a lovely ride.
Let's move swiftly on to the big day itself - please forgive the length but the National warrants the attention.
1:45 - Gaskells Handicap Hurdle, Grade 3, 3m149y.
A tricky-looking opener, and the tentative favourite is Barney Dwan. He looked like he was going to win the Pertemps at Cheltenham before Presenting Percy came shooting past; he's been raised 5lb for that effort but he deserves to land a prize such as this for Fergal O'Brien. However, I slightly prefer the claims of NO HASSLE HOFF, whose last two races have seen him finish second to Constantine Bay and The Worlds End. Those two are now proven Grade 1 performers and so this opening handicap mark for No Hassle Hoff could provide a lucrative opportunity here. The JP McManus hordes look competitive - No Comment, For Good Measure and Forthefunofit - whilst Duke Street ran well in defeat at Kempton. A special shout-out must also go to Zarkander, the 2011 Triumph winner, and one of my favourites from the rogues' gallery, Holywell. He didn't fancy his return to hurdles when he was tried here in November, and didn't fancy any of his chases after that, but the sun shining might just bring out a performance from the old boy.
Selection: NO HASSLE HOFF
2:25 - Betway Mersey Novices' Hurdle, Grade 1, 2m4f.
This looks a high-class renewal, but it's also quite tricky to judge. Finian's Oscar leads the betting, and is unbeaten over 4 career starts to date. He was described by Colin Tizzard as potentially the best young hurdler he'd had; but the bare form doesn't stack up to much, with the second in his last race (when Finian's Oscar was 1/16) Taws being beaten at odds-on on Friday. Given the red-hot form of the Tizzard stable, it would be foolish to take him on. But take him on I will, because I am a fool. There has also been hype around Brio Conti, and he justified that in some style when landing the Silver Plate at Kempton last month. Dream Berry was 4 lengths behind in third that day and provided a welcome boost to the form with a fine run in Friday's opener at Aintree. Messire Des Obeaux finished a decent third in the Neptune, whilst Le Breuil has only had two starts over hurdles but won them both by 9 lengths and looks seriously unexposed. However, I'm going for the improving LOUGH DERG SPIRIT for Nicky Henderson, who has done better with each hurdle start over the minimum distance. His point-to-point win over 3m should hopefully mean this step up in trip suits him best. Captain Forez isn't far away from getting his first win and he could run into the places, whilst La Bague Au Roi will do better than at Cheltenham if she settles.
Selection: LOUGH DERG SPIRIT
3:00 - Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase, Grade 1, 1m7f176y.
If CHARBEL stays on his feet, then his talent and speed should see him through. Connections remain convinced he'd have pushed Altior all the way in the Arkle, perhaps even beating him, and if his confidence remains intact it's hard to see him getting beaten. Politologue and San Benedeto will ensure this is a true test of Charbel's credentials, and San Benedeto probably looks better value than Forest Bihan for Brian Ellison.
Selection: CHARBEL
3:40 - Betway Handicap Chase, Listed, 3m210y.
I liked the chances of Starchitect at Cheltenham, and he ran creditably enough in fifth place. My concern here is that he appears to be running consistently well without finding huge improvements, which leaves him exposed to more progressive types. On the flip side, this new trip could help him find that improvement. Emerging Force has some decent form in the bank, whilst if Value At Risk recreates his best hurdle form he could be thrown in. However, there's only one horse I can really go for here after his decent 4th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, and that's POTTERS LEGEND for Lucy Wadham and Leighton Aspell. His form over fences is 112424 with consistent RPRs, and with a bit of luck in-running he can go close.
Selection: POTTERS LEGEND
4:20 - Ryanair Liverpool Stayers' Hurdle, Grade 1, 3m149y.
I'm still not sure why they ran Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle rather than the Stayers' at Cheltenham; the fact he went off favourite shouldn't cloud the fact that he looks made for this trip. He's not flashy, he's not got amazing acceleration, but he is tough and he should get the job done here. Cole Harden is a really consistent, likeable horse and should run his race again, whilst Paul Nicholls has a couple of live outsiders in the shape of Ptit Zig and Aux Ptit Soins. Snow Falcon can improve on his Stayers' Hurdle performance, whereas Ballyoptic can threaten if he cuts out the mistakes that often pepper his races. However, SUPASUNDAE stayed on superbly in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and if he can travel into the race, the extra distance could see him go ever better for Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power.
Selection: SUPASUNDAE
6:15 - Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle, Class 2, 2m103y.
This race for conditional and amateur jockeys is very much a case of after the Lord Mayor's show, but if anybody has any money left you'll do worse than to back either So Celebre who runs under a penalty or COUSIN OSCAR, who looks a horse very much on the up for Donald McCain on the day which means so much to him.
Selection: COUSIN OSCAR
THE GRAND NATIONAL
5:15 - Randox Health Grand National, Grade 3, 4m2f74y.
Here it is, the big one. I thought I'd do a mini horse-by-horse guide for this, but with the strict proviso of being disciplined and limiting each horse to just two short sentences. One thing to note is that as the race has become ever more classy, the weight distribution has reduced and so less emphasis is placed on how much weight a horse has to carry. However, the weights are published well in advance meaning some horses are "well in" in that they would be carrying more weight if the weights were published today. They are Definitly Red, Tenor Nivernais, Saphir Du Rheu, Vieux Lion Rouge, Blaklion, Just A Par, More Of That and Double Shuffle.
You'll also note I won't actually tip anything, because this is not really a tipping race - it's a national institution but so different to every other race. For what it's worth, though, my shortlist includes Ucello Conti, One For Arthur, Measureofmydreams, More Of That and Blaklion. Oh, and Raz De Meree. And maybe Rogue Angel. Ahem.
So here we go (beginning with horse number, horse name, trainer and jockey)...
1. The Last Samuri; Kim Bailey; David Bass.
This has been the aim all season after his excellent second last year, although he carries 12lb more this time around. Will be primed and is definitely worth a place on anybody's shortlist.
2. More Of That; Jonjo O'Neill; Barry Geraghty.
The chosen one among the McManus runners, although given only two were eventually declared it's not that important really. Very classy as evidenced by his Cheltenham record but also prone to some poor runs, but if this is one of his good days he will go close.
3. Shantou Flyer; Rebecca Curtis; Jonathan Moore.
Has only attempted 4 miles once in his career and fell in that race so his stamina is unproven. Been in decent form this season though and if he does stay he is interesting at a big price.
4. Perfect Candidate; Fergal O'Brien; Paddy Brennan.
Has never fallen or unseated his rider and has only failed to complete once in his 25 starts. Could pick up some of the pieces left by others if he avoids trouble.
5. Saphir Du Rheu; Paul Nicholls; Sam Twiston-Davies.
Was fifth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but it remains to be seen how much that took out of him, or not. Talented and frustrating in equal measures, this new trip could be the making of him.
6. Roi Des Francs; Gordon Elliott; Jack Kennedy.
17-year-old jockey Jack Kennedy is only marginally older than most of the horses here, but he has talent in spades.
7. Wounded Warrior; Noel Meade; Sean Flanagan.
He's not won a race over fences since January 2015 and not placed since January 2016. But last year's winner for the same owner had never won at all over fences so you never know...
8. Wonderful Charm; Paul Nicholls; Katie Walsh.
Any horse that reminds me of a Chas N' Dave song is a winner in my book already, but he main not be a winner in the actual race. Positive recent form doesn't really abolish the memories of last year's poor National run.
9. Tenor Nivernais; Venetia Williams; Liam Treadwell.
Won by 30 lengths a week or so after the weights were announced to blow a hole in the handicap. However, that was over 3m and this is a different test altogether.
10. Blaklion; Nigel Twiston-Davies; Noel Fehily.
Second to Vieux Lion Rouge at Haydock and had a Gold Cup entry at one stage, having won last year's RSA. Connections decided to focus on the National instead of Cheltenham and it could pay off handsomely.
11. Drop Out Joe; Charlie Longsdon; Tom O'Brien.
A talented jumper but will be racing here off a career high mark. Given he's been off the track since last June, and whose stamina hasn't held out in two attempts at 29f and 32f, I expect him to drop out of contention fairly quickly.
12. Le Mercurey; Paul Nicholls; Sean Bowen.
I've got a soft spot for this horse, but he often flatters to deceive. Given he's only 7 and has yet to race beyond 3m1f, the suspicion must be this will be a learning experience before a full tilt next year.
13. The Young Master; Neil Mulholland; Sam Waley-Cohen.
After his win at Sandown last April he looked every inch a future National winner. His form this season hasn't been great but he's got enough ability to pull this off.
14. Cause Of Causes; Gordon Elliott; Jamie Codd.
Two years ago he won at Cheltenham and then finished 8th in the National, and a year ago he won at Cheltenham and was then pulled up in the Scottish National. This year he's won at Cheltenham, so can he put in another big effort just three weeks after his cross country success?
15. Regal Encore; Anthony Honeyball; Robbie Power.
With form figures since November 2015 of F1PPP2PP1P, you're taking a big risk that he's actually going to complete the race. But if he does, and with confidence surging through Robbie Power's veins, he might spring a surprise.
16. Vieux Lion Rouge; David Pipe; Tom Scudamore.
He's very talented, he's well handicapped and he knows how to win, with 5 wins over fences from just 9 starts. But the big question (which you'll have to answer yourself because this is the second sentence) is: "Will he stay?"
17. Definitly Red; Brian Ellison; Danny Cook.
A horse that plays havoc with spell checkers, those of us with mild OCD and also football fans who dislike Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United or Nottingham Forest. Nevertheless, he looks in great form and is deservedly vying for favouritism.
18. Ucello Conti; Gordon Elliott; Daryl Jacob.
In spite of my irrational dislike for Daryl Jacob as a jockey, I've long been keen on this horse to win. He finished 6th last year but like many I hope the better ground can bring out a better finish this time around.
19. Double Shuffle; Tom George; Adrian Heskin.
He's young, and he's very talented, but I'm sure somebody said that about me once (Dad?) and I never won a Grand National. I have however backed him at a big price as I think there is more to come.
20. Houblon Des Obeaux; Venetia Williams; Charlie Deutsch.
Races off a mark of 142 yet has previously been competitive off much higher and even ran in the 2015 Gold Cup. The question mark must be how much the Midlands National where he came 4th has taken out of him, because his stamina would otherwise be assured.
21. Pleasant Company; Willie Mullins; Ruby Walsh.
Many times people back the winner because of a connection with the name. So if Pleasant Company wins for the deadly duo of Willie and Ruby, expect plenty of aftertiming from people who just consider themselves an all-round decent sort of person.
22. One For Arthur; Lucinda Russell; Derek Fox.
Scotland have been to a major football tournament since a horse trained there last won the National, which shows you how rare it is. But that could change as at 8 he should be coming into his prime, he's in good form and in his last win over 3m5f he was showing no signs of stopping.
23. Ballynagour; David Pipe; David Noonan.
Last year he unseated his rider in the National, and on each of his last three runs he's been pulled-up. No, me neither.
24. O'Faolains Boy; Rebecca Curtis; Paul Townend.
Another one with more pulled-ups than places recently, but they did come after an injury lay-off so perhaps this has always been the aim. The wind operation he's had needs to have worked.
25. Highland Lodge; James Moffatt; Henry Brooke.
Loves Aintree, finishing first and second in two Becher Chases in 2015 and 2016. His lack of regular runs is a slight concern but he was recently purchased to provide the owners with a National winner.
26. Bishops Road; Kerry Lee; Jamie Moore.
Loves heavy ground. Tomorrow won't be heavy.
27. Lord Windermere; Jim Culloty; Leighton Aspell.
No matter how many times you say it, it still remains absolutely frightening that this horse has won an actual Cheltenham Gold Cup. It could be even more gobsmacking if he takes his place in history as a Gold Cup AND a Grand National winner but it's not beyond the realms of possibility.
28. Saint Are; Tom George; Davy Russell.
This is his fourth National, with previous finishes of 92P. His prep run at Doncaster was promising so not without a chance.
29. Vicente; Paul Nicholls; Brian Hughes.
If he reproduces the form of his Scottish National win from last season, he'll have a big shout. If he reproduces the form of any of his other runs this season, he won't.
30. Just A Par; Paul Nicholls; Harry Cobden.
If some of my golfers in the Masters whom I've doubled up in bets with National runners could manage just a par, I'd be sitting pretty. But they can't, I'm not and Just A Par will only be sitting pretty if he puts his disappointing two Chase appearances here behind him.
31. Measureofmydreams; Noel Meade; Donagh Meyler.
Look at his form from the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. Go on, just look at it.
32. Raz De Maree; Gavin Cromwell; Ger Fox.
Was a fine second behind Native River in the Welsh National, form which looks very solid. His spin over hurdles last month would have kept him ticking over; darkhorse.
33. Stellar Notion; Henry De Bromhead; David Mullins.
He loves to attempt to make all. If he attempts to make all here and does make all, I will be drowning in Stella.
34. Rogue Angel; Mouse Morris; Bryan Cooper.
Bryan Cooper has chosen this one from the Gigginstown battalions, and he's trained by last year's winning trainer. Won the 2016 Irish National and is off what looks to be a workable mark.
35. Cocktails At Dawn; Nicky Henderson; Nico De Boinville.
Doesn't jump brilliantly, and doesn't stay very far. If this one hoses up, I'll be drinking cocktails made of tears until dawn, which is probably preferable to Stella.
36. Thunder And Roses; Mouse Morris; Mark Enright.
A former winner of the Irish National and with of other respectable performances for last year's winning trainer. Appears to save his best for Ireland though, perhaps he just doesn't like crossing the sea.
37. Gas Line Boy; Ian Williams; Robbie Dunne.
A respectable prep race without pulling up any trees behind Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion. More concerning is his fall at the first in the 2015 renewal.
38. Goodtoknow; Kerry Lee; Jake Greenall.
His second behind One For Arthur in January was much better than his performance at Haydock. Surely he'll find a few too good here though, surely?
39. La Vaticane; David Pipe; Richie McLernon.
Has won over three miles but only raced once over further and was pulled up. If this one hoses up, I'll be calling the Vatican to absolve me of the sins I will commit.
40. Doctor Harper; David Pipe; Conor O'Farrell.
Scraped in at bottom weight following the late non-declaration of Pendra. He'll need every pound he can get with two Ps and a U in his last 6 runs.
Be lucky,
Derek Potter
| Horse Racing: Each Way | E/W Stake of 2pt(s) for a Total Stake of 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-13:45 | Aintree | No Hassle Hoff | 5.50 | 9/2 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by SkyBet
| Horse Racing: Each Way | E/W Stake of 2pt(s) for a Total Stake of 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-14:25 | Aintree | Lough Derg Spirit | 8.50 | 15/2 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by Coral
| Horse Racing: Single | Total Stake : 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-15:00 | Aintree | Charbel | 1.73 | 8/11 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by Bet 365
| Horse Racing: Each Way | E/W Stake of 2pt(s) for a Total Stake of 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-15:40 | Aintree | Potters Legend | 11.00 | 10/1 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by Paddy Power
| Horse Racing: Single | Total Stake : 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-16:20 | Aintree | Supasundae | 8.00 | 7/1 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by Betfair
| Horse Racing: Each Way | E/W Stake of 2pt(s) for a Total Stake of 4.00pts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Horse | Advised Odds | |||
| 08/04-18:15 | Aintree | Cousin Oscar | 17.00 | 16/1 | ||
Odds for this selection provided by Betfair
Good Luck
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