7th April 2017

 

FREE To Premium Members - Aintree Derek Potter Extra

It was a difficult start to the Aintree Festival, as both Frodon and Forth Bridge did too much too soon and paid the price in the home straight; Flying Angel ran as I hoped he would at Cheltenham to add to the frustration, whilst Defi De Seuil showed he is as tough as he is talented. Empire Of Dirt was found to be lame after the race, but whether that's an excuse or not we won't know as he never looked happy from the off; Tea For Two and Lizzie Kelly gained Cheltenham redemption in some style. Buveur D'Air looks impregnable right now, although both The New One and My Tent Or Yours ran good races in very different ways. Bear's Affair ran well enough in 7th but On The Fringe failed to justify favouritism again, whilst Double W's ran exactly the sort of race I'd hoped given his Cheltenham effort to bravely win from Theinval at 8/1. Irish Roe was given far too much to do having been held up at the back for much of the race. If your Nan is called Rose you'd have HAD IT RIGHT OFF by backing the first two home in each way doubles with Carole Rose in the 4:55 at Limerick.

So onto Day Two, and we have some rather large handicaps to decipher...

1:40 - Alder Hey Children's Charity Handicap Hurdle, Grade 3, 2m4f.
We begin with a fascinating puzzle full of potential improvers and at 9/1 the field it's very easy to make a compelling case for about 20 of the 22 runners. Of the ones I like but have ruled out, Rather Be and Dream Berry head the list, whilst Sumkindofking hasn't quite fulfilled his early promise. I really liked North Hill Harvey at Cheltenham but he tailed off, and carrying top weight here could prove slightly too big an ask for him, but I remain a fan. Thomas Campbell ran a good race in the Fred Winter, but the two we'll take a chance with are ICE COLD SOUL and A HARE BREATH. Ice Cold Soul missed Cheltenham but the record of Irish handicappers was quite remarkable, particularly those wearing the colours of Gigginstown stud, and his win at Leopardstown in January stacks up favourably. The slight question mark is whether he's as good at 20 furlongs as he is at 16, but at double figures I'm prepared to chance him. A Hare Breath reverts to hurdles after a lacklustre showing in the Arkle, but I'm convinced he has more ability than that and perhaps a spin over these smaller obstacles could bring that out. This is wide open though and small stakes are definitely the order of the day.

Selection: ICE COLD SOUL each way
Alternative: A HARE BREATH each way

2:20 - Crabbie's Top Novices' Hurdle, Grade 1, 2m103y.
Novice races are funny things at times because of the way the rules work. Hence we have RIVER WYLDE, a 6yo novice who came third in the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham, taking on Moon Racer, an 8yo novice who contested the Champion Hurdle on the same day. River Wylde was my pick for the Supreme and he ran very well in defeat, and I'm reluctant to take him on. So after much deliberation I've decided not to; he doesn't have Irish raiders to deal with her and I don't think we've seen the end of his improvement over hurdles yet. Moon Racer could still be brilliant - I rather thought the Champion Hurdle would be too much for him but completely understand why connections took a chance - and he was pulled up before too much damage was done. Mount Mews is also unexposed and poses a serious threat, whilst High Secret and The Unit could go well at bigger prices.

Selection: RIVER WYLDE win

2:50 - Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase, Grade 1, 3m210y.
We'll keep this one relatively simple because if there is a horse with more talent than MIGHT BITE in the staying novice chase division, I haven't seen one this season. However, if there is a horse with more quirks than this rogue, I haven't seen one this season - and I include Un De Sceaux and Yorkhill in that. A faller when 20 lengths clear at Kempton on Boxing Day, and the same distance clear over the last at Cheltenham when he decided to take a closer look at the adoring crowd before remembering they wouldn't be quite so adoring if he didn't actually finish and win, he is both brilliant and baffling. Stablemate Whisper will surely pick up the pieces if Might Bite bites the fences, but this is not a race to get involved in - it'll be heart-stopping enough as it is.

Selection: NO BET

3:25 - JLT Melling Chase, Grade 1, 2m3f200y.
A relatively small but classy field, headed by the Ryanair runner-up Sub Lieutenant. That was excellent behind the extremely classy Un De Sceaux, and Henry De Bromhead's charge warrants plenty of respect. God's Own won this race last year and can put a poor showing in the Champion Chase behind him on a course where his form is 212. However, it's with the Champion Chase runner-up FOX NORTON we'll go with. This is the first time he's attempted this distance, but he hasn't shown signs of being headstrong in the past and his previous form behind Douvan and Sizing John, as well as some excellent wins, should mean he has the class to see it through. Uxizandre is entitled to keep improving for his third start after almost two years off through injury, whilst Traffic Fluide's effort in the Champion Chase was his best effort for a while and he can threaten at a big price if he repeats that.

Selection: FOX NORTON win

4:05 - Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase, Grade 3, 2m5f.
A 30 runner minefield and we'll certainly need two on our side here and possibly more. Go Conquer and Seefood are vying for favouritism, and they both look nicely handicapped - particularly Seefood whose mark was protected following his course and distance second in December by virtue of a run over hurdles last month to keep him ticking over. However, our first selection is a horse who was third that day in HENRYVILLE, who races off a 1lb lower mark this time around for Harry Fry and Leighton Aspell. (The winner of that race was As De Mee, who is actually up 7lb for that win). Henryville wears a hood today which should be a positive in such a big field and if he settles and gets the required luck in running I'm hopeful he can go close. For our other selection, we'll go for Henryville's stablemate THOMAS BROWN, who hasn't given his true running the last twice at Cheltenham but who I think will benefit from a return to Aintree on better ground. The distance should be fine and he should be competitive off this mark. I also like the look of O O Seven and Katnap could be a dangerous outsider.

Selection: HENRYVILLE each way
Alternative: THOMAS BROWN each way

4:40 - Doom Bar Sefton Novices' Hurdle, Grade 1, 3m149y.
The favourite here is The Worlds End who was considered by many to be one of the hard luck stories of Cheltenham when he fell two from home just as he was making his challenge; he may well have been involved at the finish had he stayed on his feet. Similar to Moon Racer above, we have another horse here returning to novice company after a crack at a Championship race at Cheltenham, in the form of West Approach. He found the Stayers' Hurdle too hot to handle, but with the right tactics today, I think he can emulate his half-brother Thistlecrack who finally announced himself to the world in this very race two years ago. However, another I'm slightly more keen on is CONSTANTINE BAY, who was just as unlucky as The Worlds End at Cheltenham when he was badly hampered at the same fence. He finished 4th but I feel there is still more to come here. Beyond Conceit looks interesting up in trip after his 6th in the Supreme - he stayed 2m5f on the flat so it's not inconceivable he could relish this sort of distance. Debece has been tipped at a big price in the Racing Post but there might still be some value available early doors.

Selection: CONSTANTINE BAY win

5:15 - Weatherbys Private Bank Standard Open National Hunt Flat race, Grade 2, 2m209y.
Under the British rules, horses can only run in this Bumper (for despite the grand title of this race, I much prefer the simple "Bumper") if they have run in other Bumpers a maximum 4 times. However, they are also allowed a fifth run but only if that fifth run was in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Experience can be vital in races like this and so the only horse which fits the bill on that specific criterion is WESTERN RYDER, beaten into 5th that day but well backed before the race by connections (which include Lee Westwood) and could improve again from that effort. Black Op, Champion Bumper third Claimantakinforgan and If The Cap Fits are all well fancied whilst Niceandeasy looks a very interesting runner on just his second start for Keith Dalgleish.

Selection: WESTERN RYDER win

 

Horse Racing: Each Way			E/W Stake of 1pt(s) for a Total Stake of 2.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-13:40	Aintree	Ice Cold Soul		13.00	12/1

Odds for this selection provided by Bet Victor

Horse Racing: Each Way			E/W Stake of 1pt(s) for a Total Stake of 2.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-13:40	Aintree	A Hare Breath		34.00	33/1

Odds for this selection provided by William Hill

Horse Racing: Single			Total Stake : 4.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-14:20	Aintree	River Wylde		3.25	9/4

Odds for this selection provided by SkyBet

Horse Racing: Single			Total Stake : 4.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-15:25	Aintree	Fox Norton		5.00	4/1

Odds for this selection provided by Stan James

Horse Racing: Each Way			E/W Stake of 1pt(s) for a Total Stake of 2.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-16:05	Aintree	Henryville		15.00	14/1

Odds for this selection provided by Betfair

Horse Racing: Each Way			E/W Stake of 1pt(s) for a Total Stake of 2.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-16:05	Aintree	Thomas Brown		23.00

Odds for this selection provided by Bet Victor

Horse Racing: Single			Total Stake : 4.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-16:40	Aintree	Constantine Bay		4.50	7/2

Odds for this selection provided by Paddy Power

Horse Racing: Single			Total Stake : 4.00pts
Date	Course	Horse		Advised Odds
07/04-17:15	Aintree	Western Ryder		6.50	11/2

Odds for this selection provided by Coral

 

Good Luck

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