4th April 2017
Hi ,
We are glad to be putting March behind us on official figures we record our first loss for 6 months. That doesn’t tell the whole story though and we had many positives to take from the month. All of the information we provided for Cheltenham was kept off the official score so things were not as drab as the official figures show. It is simply a case of too many horses finishing close rather than winning a problem that can and does strike at any time.
Still nicely ahead for the year though and April has started brightly with a couple of winners yesterday at 9/2 advised and 7/1 sp. It would only take a few more like that and we will have reclaimed what the bookie is holding for us. Then we can sting them for the interest!
It’s that time of year as we transition between the seasons. Moving from the jumps to the flat with only Aintree and the Grand National to round things up on the jumps.
I think for all our members I will put on an Aintree horses in focus for all three days of the festival including a Grand National write up. So now would be a great time to join.
Another nice week last Tuesday for our horses in focus as we got plenty of shorter priced horses beaten as price negatives. However the real joy came with a 33/1 winner this is what we said about the race… HEXHAM 2:00 The market has this as a match between STORM FORCAST and WELL ABOVE PAR both are too short to back and even the reverse forecast makes little sense at these prices. I had a look through our speed ratings for these and we gave BRUICHLADDICH 33/1 a rating of 60 and Well Above Par 39 for the last races they ran that could make this horse a worthwhile each way play.
Today we only have 2 meetings but that is ok we will have a go and try to find you a winner or two and that will give me enough time later to start going through the AINTREE stats.
SOUTHWELL 2:10 MESHARDAL is expected to run a big race today 4/1 in places is just enough to warrant a bet of the bigger priced horses APPLEBERRY 25/1 makes some each way appeal after finishing 10l behind Wentworth falls that form now looks quite strong for this class 5 event as wentworth hacked up in a competitive race class 3 at Doncaster a few days ago yes the horse doesn’t have a great record but has always been a horse that would need time.
2:40 ARZAK looks the most likely one here judging by our speed ratings the horse should be clear at the business end 11/8 looks a bit of value. If there is some improvement from STOPWORLDNLETMEOFF that would make 25/1 look huge for that horse I think a worth each way and may be the one that follows the favourite home.
3:15 Plenty of chances here there is money for BORDER BANDIT and QUADRIGA both trading around 11/1. I know MOI AUSSIE was expected to do better last time so he has to be respected but small win bets on the first 2 mentioned would be where our pin drops.
3:50 STAR ASSENDING is the selection here from a stable in peak form 4/1 looks fair enough and I expect a decent run for our money. I can’t help thinking that ALBERT BOY 20/1 will pop up one of these days he is very well handicapped on best form and has been out of form for some time it may be today or maybe not but I assure you the horse will win soon and it will be at a decent price.
4:20 Similar may be said about BOLD PREDICTION 8/1 here another winner in waiting. It’s only a matter of time before this guy puts it all in again.
4:55 The most interesting race I quite like outsider ZYLAN 20/1 with bet365 the break has freshened him up and although they don’t know if they have him fully right and may need a race the price is worth a small risk. Daniel Steele has PULSATING 16/1 he has a chance of an each way Trixie today with his horses he also runs 5:55 GLENALMOND 11/2 and at Kempton 4:45 LANDSCAPE 3/1 all would have some kind of chance today of making the frame so an each way Trixie makes some appeal.
Back Next Tuesday.
Best Wishes,
