16th January 2017

Hi ,

Once you have your selections, the questions is... how do you know what odds you should take?

Is it best to take any odds, only odds above a certain level or only odds below a certain level?

Today I hope to answer a few of these questions.

How you choose to bet is a very subjective matter, and I'm sure there are going to be plenty of you who disagree with what I am about to say. And that's fine. This is just the way I personally choose to do things.

The method I use to choose the odds at which I will bet a selection are determined by the way that I found the selection to begin with. There are many ways to choose and I use a variety of methods.

If I'm form reading and have spent the morning finding selections through analysis of each horse’s performance, then I use experience to tell me whether the odds are good enough. There is no set formula for it but rather a gut instinct that decides whether I will place the bet or not.

But, if the more traditional method of finding selections through form reading is your preferred method, then there are a few techniques to help you find out what odds you may require before placing a bet.

This is where those all important historical records you've been keeping come in!

Open them up and start to analyse them. It's likely that if you're form reading then you're already specialising in a certain type of race. One of the first places to begin is to look at which odds ranges you're most profitable in and then look for the reason why. It's the why that is so important.

To do this you could simply narrow down to the areas where you make the most profit. But there's no reason to lose out on profit from other areas by ignoring them. Of course, if you discover that when the odds are higher than 12, for example, you make an overall loss then it makes sense to stop betting horses higher than 12.

As you go back through your records you want to give each horse odds that you think it should be and then add 10%, 20% or 30% to this to indicate the value you require before placing a bet.

This will allow you to look back and learn what levels of value you require on your current odds to make a profit. Go through your historical results doing this on a monthly or quarterly basis. Every month/quarter you can analyse your own odds to see how well you're doing. By approaching it like this you will be rapidly improving on your odds lines.

Each time you look back, check if anything is out of line. This means asking questions such as...

Why am I always saying that a certain type of horse has lower odds than what I can bet at?
Am I always over-valuing certain types of horses?
Am I always under-valuing certain types of horses?

This process will give you the skill you need to price up a race.

Of course, this process can take a bit of time. If you don’t have the time to go back through your records, then you can start putting the prices you think a horse is worth next to the selection in your records and in a few months start using the same process when you have enough data to analyse.

System builders are lucky, the odds you're betting at is not something to concern yourself with unless it's already built into the system.

The whole purpose of a system is that it's quick and easy to implement.

Having said that however, I advise going back to your systems and checking whether if you had bet earlier in the day how much higher your winnings would be.

All successful bettors are permanently looking to get the best odds on their bets and early morning can be a good time.

Personally I use a combination of odds lines and automated selection methods. Every horse in every race gets odds that I consider to be their chance of winning the race.

I use my own odds as a factor when building the methods to find my selections. The work flow looks a bit like this...

• Price up all the horses in the race
• Find which horse types are likely to perform well in which race types (separate method to the pricing) i.e. contenders
• Cross check this with the odds I have given the contenders to determine what would be the minimum acceptable odds (can be lower than the odds I have given them)
• Incorporate the market odds and re-analyse
• Determine the best way to bet the selections

Spending the time to learn how your selections are performing in different odds ranges and learning to create odds lines is well worth it but remember to focus on a specific set of race conditions and become a master in them.

Best Wishes,

Michael Wilding