Hi ,
If you want to make a profit from your betting then you need to be doing things differently to the majority of the betting public. And that’s true whether you’re reading form or building systems.
Most system builders are built around preset questions or filters. For example…
Include horses that have had at least 10 days since they last raced AND whose trainers have a 17% or higher strike rate
Yes there’s a large amount of variables we can change, we could have 12 days or 52 or days or we could change the trainer strike rate to 17.5% or 23% but…
…are we really doing things differently?
Are we really asking different questions to every other punter out there?
Not really no.
What we’re doing is taking the questions most punters are asking and running them through a database to get the answer faster.
So we have the benefit of speed, but we’re not asking anything different.
And we know that we need to be asking the different questions if we’re going to make a profit.
So how do we do this?
First of all we have to re-align our thinking from “How do we make a profit” to “What horses are most likely to be competitive in THIS race”.
There are very few races where only one horse has a strong chance of winning and, with that in mind, we need to be looking for all the horses that are likely to be competitive in the race.
Only when we know who all these runners are can we ask the question… “How do we bet on these strongest runners to make the most profit?”
Ultimately we want to solve the problem of finding who will win a horse race, if we solve that problem then we’ll make a profit by definition. By not going into our analysis looking for a profit at the beginning, we’re making a fundamental change to our thinking.
Now that we’ve made this fundamental change to the way that we think, we can begin to look at how to answer questions differently to everyone else.
The best way of doing this is to use ratings and ratings that the majority of the betting public don’t have access to. If you’re a Racing Dossier member then you’ll know that I use hundreds of ratings and there’s a good reason for this.
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You see, there are only five main factors in racing:
Everything can be put into one of these factor groups. But, there are many ways to measure each of these. Let’s take form as an example. We could create ratings that look at recent performance, preference to race conditions, collateral form, form improvement etc…
And then, for each one of these ratings in the group, there are multiple ways of measuring it.
Now you may be wondering why you’d want to measure the same thing in different ways. At first look it doesn’t seem to make sense.
But… it’s measuring the same thing from different ways will end making you a lot more profit. By doing this you’re effectively giving different importance to the things that go into the rating each time, and different sets of race conditions will find different measurements of the same factor more effective!
So, what you need to do is write down every factor that you think is important and the reason why. Then you need to write down, under each factor, all the different methods of calculating it.
You’ll end up with at least 3 methods for each factor and some could have 10 or 20 methods!
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Best Wishes,
Michael Wilding
