3rd June 2016

Hi ,

The Investec Oaks – A Guide To The Runners.

With just the nine runners declared for Friday’s Oaks, this will be the first single-runner Oaks field since the brilliant Ouija Board won in 2004.

Even Song was not declared, but Ballydoyle still run a third of the field. Having a small field is likely to remove any hard luck stories in-running, and it should be a truly run race to remember. It is hard to oppose Minding, but if you are minded to take her on, my preference is for Somehow and Skiffle.

Click Here - For The Only Analysis You Need For Every Runner In The Oaks Today.

Massaat The Each-Way Option In A Wide Open Derby

When bookmakers offer odds on which horse will be the starting price favourite you know the Derby is an open race and four horses could still be the market leader at post time on Saturday. However, Massaat could be as big as 14/1 to prove the old saying again that a horse that is ‘placed in the 1,000 Guineas wins the Derby’. That statement is not born out by recent results but Massaat looks overpriced to win the most important Flat race in the world.

This year’s Derby at Epsom will be the richest race ever staged in Britain. Supplementary fees paid by the owners of several leading contenders has boosted the prize fund to over £1.5 million and as many as 18 horses could take part. The race is run over one mile four furlongs of the unique Epsom course that requires speed, stamina and balance to handle. The Derby is a true test of a thoroughbred and for some time a filly was prominent in the betting.

One of the strange quirks of the Classics is that fillies can run in the 1,000 Guineas and Derby but colts cannot run in the 2,000 Guineas and Oaks. Aidan O’Brien trains Minding for Coolmore and that horse is favourite to win the Oaks but was considered for the Derby. The syndicate are businessman who know the value of a Derby winner at stud. A colt may cover 150 mares a breeding season while a mare can only produce offspring once a year. That’s been the case with animals since year dot.

Even in Minding’s absence O’Brien could have seven runners in this year’s Derby, including US Army Ranger. The horse was not convincing in beating Port Douglas at Chester. He had every opportunity to pull clear in the straight. Port Douglas did not have the rail to assist his run and given a more enterprising ride may have prevailed. The front pair finished well ahead of the rest of the field so Port Douglas makes more appeal for the Derby at the relative prices. However, some respected professionals believe US Army Ranger could improve enough to win the Derby.

O’Brien’s Deauville and Idaho were the horses for money at the start of the week. Betfair reported that on their sportsbook they pushed out US Army Ranger and the horse was not being backed on the exchange. Their spokesman was quoted in the Racing Post as saying: “US Army Ranger is absolutely friendless, especially on the exchange, and the rain must be an issue”. The horse likes good underfoot conditions and plenty of rain has changed the going to good to soft, soft in places.

Ulysses is another horse that could be the Derby favourite on Saturday. The horse is trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race five times but not since 2010 with Workforce. O’Brien has won five Derbies, including three in succession from 2012 to 2014, one of which was ridden by Ryan Moore who partners US Army Ranger in this year’s race and rode Workforce. Ulysses is bred to win the Derby and although Moore will be pleased for his old boss no favours or quarter will be given.

Godolphin have never won the Derby and in Moonlight Magic and Cloth Of Stars they have horses that are not quite good enough to give them that first elusive win. Wings Of Desire won the most significant trial, the Dante Stakes at York, but not as impressively as Golden Horn last year who then gave Frankie Dettori his second win in the Derby. Humphrey Bogart and Red Vernon have been supplemented but are only good enough to win place money to cover the cost. So by the process of elimination Massaat must be considered, as least to make the payout places.

Massaat was beaten by less than four lengths by Galileo Gold in the 1,000 Guineas. That horse set a good standard in the Derby ratings after the race but connections believe the horse is a specialist over one mile so have bypassed the Derby in favour of Royal Ascot. That takes Massaat to near the top of the Racing Post Ratings for horses declared to run in the Derby. Other horses have run decent trials but Massaat has been placed in one of the Classics which represent the pinnacle of Flat racing.

US Army Ranger has been hyped as the next great thing from the O’Brien stable. The Derby could confirm that reputation but the horse has only won a maiden and the inconclusive trial at Chester. Weather conditions have gone against US Army Ranger and a more solid bet is backing Massaat each way in a wide open race for which the favourite could start at 4/1.

Best Wishes,

BetFan