20th May 2016
THE FA CUP MILLION POUND GOAL
1 GOAL… 1 PLAYER… 1 MINUTE… £1 MILLION…
Hi ,
In every year since the start of the Premier League era in 1992-93 the FA Cup winners have come from the top division. Generally the team that finished higher in the table during the season beats a side from further down the standings. The average number of goals over the last 23 finals is just over two. On the basis of these trends Manchester United will beat Crystal Palace 2-0 in the FA Cup Final on Saturday.
The tie is a repeat of the final in 1990 when United beat Palace in a replay after the original match was a 3-3 draw. Ian Wright was virtually unknown at the time and he came off the bench to score twice for the London team. The match went to extra time and Mark Hughes, the current manager of Stoke, equalised for United towards the end of the second period of extra-time. In those days there were no penalty shootouts so everybody returned to the old Wembley Stadium on the next Thursday. The 1990 Crystal Palace team was the last one with eleven English players to play in the FA Cup Final. Hughes was the only survivor from United’s 1985 Cup winning team.
United finished 10 places and 24 points ahead of their opponents on Saturday in the recently completed Premier League season. The average finishing position in the Premier League of the Cup winners is fourth and the losing finalists have been on average 9th in the league in the season they played at Wembley. Since 1992-93 there have been three draws after 90 minutes and only one of those finals did not see a goal. Eleven Cup Finals have been tied after 45 minutes over this spell.
Of the 49 goals scored in the Cup Final over the last 23 years 18 arrived in the first half. Only eight of these 23 fixtures produced more than two goals and six had more than three. Both teams have scored in six finals and in three such matches both teams scored in the first half. The team that scored the first goal have only failed to be in front after 90 minutes on four occasions. Two sides have come from a goal behind to win the Cup final since 1993. The team that led at half time have won the Cup nine times but eight fixtures were goal less at the break.
The Cup Final is rarely a goal fest as players are cautious and reluctant to take risks. Historically matches open up in the second half and are a much better spectacle than in the first period. In 2006 Liverpool and West Ham drew 3-3 but this was the only Cup Final that has produced more than four goals since the start of the Premier League era. All but two finals were all Premier League affairs and a team from outside the top division has not scored first in the last 23 final ties.
There is a history of shocks in the earlier rounds but usually the cream comes to the top. Since the beginning of the Premier League era for the 1992/93 season 44 of the 46 finalists have come from the top level of English football. Only three sides have reached the Cup Final having finished lower than 14th in the Premier League that season and two lost the match. Conversely Wigan beat Manchester City in 2013 but were relegated while their opponents finished second in the league.
In 2004 Millwall from League One were outclassed by Manchester United in the Cup Final. Four years later Cardiff represented the Championship but were beaten by Portsmouth who were in the Premier League at the time. One of Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have won the FA Cup 18 times since 1993 and since joining the elite Manchester City have also won the competition. The point is that despite early upsets the Cup has been dominated by the Premier League superpowers. United are now clear favourites to keep that run going but maybe this is the season in which there could be an upset at Wembley.
Even winning the Cup might not save Louis Van Gaal his job because qualifying for the Champions League was the minimum requirement of his tenure this season. United recorded their lowest total of goals in the Premier League this season. They had a run of hardly scoring at Old Trafford and missed out on the Champions League because Manchester City had a better goal difference. Palace started well but their form dipped but they accumulated enough points early on to avoid getting dragged into a relegation struggle.
The records and statistics suggest Manchester United should beat Crystal Palace in the Cup Final. However, in a bizarre season when the champions were massive outsiders a win for the underdogs would be appropriate. The most unlikely outcome is Palace to win 4-3 after conceding the first goal and losing at half time. Stranger things have happened this season but the bookies won’t offer 5,000/1 that it does on Saturday.
Best Wishes,
BetFan
