13th May 2016

Hi ,

Champions League Issue Is tale of One City… or United!

After ten months of football and 37 fixtures for each side it comes down to 90 minutes to determine which side will finish fourth in the Premier League and qualify for the Champions League. Only by a freak of scoring can West Ham get in to the Holy Grail of European football in their first season at the Olympic Stadium but they could play in the Europa League at their new home in Stratford. Arsenal and Tottenham are still vying for second place behind Leicester but that is just about local pride.

The one major outstanding issue of the Premier League season is which one of the Manchester clubs will play in the Champions League next season. It looks highly likely United will be managed by Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola is taking over at City so amazingly one of two of the best coaches in the world won’t be managing in the premier domestic competition. United host Bournemouth while City visit Swansea and both those clubs have nothing to play for except points and prize money.

All ten fixtures will begin at 3pm on Sunday on the final weekend of the Premier League season. Towards the end of each football season, the Premier League contains games that don’t mean much to either team. Sides that have no chance of qualifying for Europe but well clear of the relegation zone or relegated often just go through the motions when they meet. Form can be disregarded but these matches can give punters an edge.

History proves that the last week of the season produces far fewer red and yellow cards in the Premier League than over any other weekend. Another factor is the tendency of the referee to reach for his cards after a minor indiscretion or give players the benefit of the doubt. Low-carding referees control discipline through understanding that in a physical contact sport fouls will happen but showing the culprits a red or yellow card is not the best way to control a match.

Bookmakers assign 10 points to a yellow card and 25 points for a red and issue odds on the total number of bookings points in bands or in an over/under format. Under 20 should be avoided as that means one or no bookings and even in meaningless kickabouts two players will do something that warrants a yellow card. The Under 25 option allows for two yellows for a winning bet. Once the key fixtures have been identified you can sit back and watch these boring matches.

The following fixtures on Sunday have a look of players on the beach: Chelsea v Leicester, Everton v Norwich, Southampton v Crystal Palace, Watford v Sunderland and West Brom v Liverpool. You can get the latest referee stats from many websites online so should find several matches that are tailor made for a low bookings count. This is a once in a season opportunity to have an edge in the battle to beat the bookies. Odds may be adjusted accordingly but for the punter these games can be a goldmine.

Bragging rights in North London are at stake for Tottenham and Arsenal and those who had Leicester in a forecast with either club will be sweating on how this issue pans out. Arsenal will beat Aston Villa at home and Tottenham must surely have enough away at relegated Newcastle. That means Tottenham will finish second behind Leicester and anyone who predicted that is a genius or very lucky. Any two of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea will not qualify for the Champions League.

United must win and City must lose for the red side of Manchester to see Champions League football next season. United are home bankers against Bournemouth which means City must avoid defeat at Swansea to put their neighbours in their place. The double on the two Manchester clubs is 8/11 and that could be the way to go. Incentive and motivation can see both favourites obliging which would be good news for Pep but bad news for the Special One.

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