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29th April 2016

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Massaat and Buratino Each-Way Alternatives to Air Force Blue

The Irish lads think Air Force Blue is a monster and word has come from Ballydoyle that the horse is the best two-year-old trained by Aidan O’Brien. In that case the odds-on favourite cannot be opposed in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday. The trick is identifying the each-way alternative and Massaat could be the horse that assumes that roll. The first Classic of the season looks a penalty kick for Air Force Blue but he is not available to back at a working man’s price.

The 2,000 Guineas is run over the straight Rowley Mile at the headquarters of Flat racing. The race identifies the best three-year-old colt over 8 furlongs, even though fillies are eligible but rarely take part. The Guineas is the first leg of the Triple Crown which also includes the Derby at Epsom in June and the St Leger at Doncaster in September. A Triple Crown winner must excel form one mile to one mile six furlongs and maintain form from the spring until early autumn.

As only horses in the Classic generation at three can take part it is not possible to have multiple winners. Records for jockeys and the joint top trainer were set in the 19th century but the Coolmore syndicate who own Air Force Blue have won the race eight times between 1997 and 2015. O’Brien trained seven of those winners and is equal best for most 2,000 Guineas champions so he would have the record alone if AFB delivers. The draw, ground and trials won’t be too much of a handicap for Air Force Blue not to prevail but at 8/13 the value and room for error has gone.

The major trials for the race are the Craven Stakes and Greenham Stakes but for many horses, such as Air Force Blue, it is their first start of the season. The 2,000 Guineas is a prestigious race in its own right but for some horses, such as Camelot (2012) and Australia (2014), both trained by O’Brien, it is a stepping stone to winning the Derby. Air Force Blue is not quoted in the betting for that race so connections must believe he is a specialist at around one mile. The trainer has won four of the last 10 2,000 Guineas, all with horses making their seasonal reappearances and that trend can continue with Air Force Blue.

The horse was the dominant juvenile of last season, winning three Group 1s, including the Dewhurst at Newmarket which identifies the champion two-year-old. The vibes from the stable are that the horse has wintered well and looked in great form in a gallop at the Curragh recently. Air Force Blue will be tough to beat but fast ground would be a negative. However, on Racing Post Ratings he has seven pounds and more in hand over the rest of the field.

Massaat is a best priced 12/1 with Skybet but that price won’t last not long when the each-way bandits get involved. Two points less is the general price but that still represents 6/4 to be placed at one quarter the odds for the first three places. Emotionless is now out of the equation and Stormy Antarctic has emerged as the second favourite after beating Derby fancy Foundation with something in hand. However, the juice has now gone with that horse and Massaat makes more appeal.

Air Force Blue beat Massaat by more than three lengths in the Dewhurst so reversing that form will be a tough ask. His trainer thinks the horse will be suited by a mile after a good run in that major trial at Newmarket. Massaat will need luck in running or something to go wrong with the favourite to win the 2,000 Guineas but making the payout places is not beyond home. Buratino is in the same position in that Air Force Blue will be too good but can be placed at a decent price and makes appeal as an each-way proposition.

Buratino has the speed to figure at the business end at Newmarket. He was an early two-year-old and won a juvenile race at Royal Ascot last season. He beat Air Force Blue convincingly at the Royal meeting so the price difference is too great. His pedigree suggests one mile will not be a problem and despite being put in his place at the Curragh by Air Force Blue winning the Guineas would not be a major surprise. However, the favourite will take all the beating but our two alternatives can make the payout places.

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