13th March 2016

Hi ,

Highest Rated Don Cossack Worthy Favourite for the Gold Cup

The ante post betting for the Cheltenham Festival is less vibrant than in the past as the competition has become more intense in the day of the race markets. Betting exchanges set the agenda and bookmakers compete with free bets and bonuses but there could still be some value in backing My Tent Or Your at 9/1 with Stan James to win the Champion Hurdle. Don Cossack is a solid 4/1 chance across the board in the Gold Cup and the highest rated horse in training could start at 3/1.

Yanworth is seen as the British banker in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle but on ratings Yorkhill is not far behind. The favourite has been impressive but not beaten much while Yorkhill has done well at a higher level but could run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle instead. The value in backing Zubayr for the Triumph may have gone but the horse still warrants investment at 5/1 with most major online bookmakers.

The lure and attraction of the best race meeting in the world is indicated by the appearance of maybe seven races at the festival in the top 10 for the biggest betting turnover races of the year. That figure could be higher this year as the Foxhunters Chase will get unprecedented coverage. Victoria Pendleton, the Olympic cycling champion, will ride Pacha Du Polder in the race but 16/1 looks about right. The professionals think she has earned the right to ride but a top ten finish is seen as the best potential outcome.

The ante post betting markets have been complicated by the multiple entries for some horses, especially those trained by Willie Mullins. Yorkhill could run in the opening feature of the first two days while Annie Power could still contest the Mares’ Hurdle she should have won last year. Falling at the final hurdle with the race won saved the bookies a fortune but the Mullins day one acca could come in this time at about 20/1.

My Tent Or Yours tanked through the Champion Hurdle in 2014. The horse ran like a miler and Sir Anthony McCoy has a battle on his hands for two miles. My Tent Or Yours looked the most likely winner from two out but Jezki had more speed on the run-in. That piece of form is the best on offer for this race but the horse has not run for two years. Winning a Grade 1 after such a long absence will be difficult but there have been some positive vibes from the stable.

There has been a trend in recent years for the bookmakers to be aggressive on the first day of the festival. Free bets and bonuses are used to attract new customers and keep the loyalty of existing ones. The meeting is a four day battle to beat the bookies and some pivotal races and horses can set the tone. The Gold Cup is one of the most open in years and of the highest quality based on the ratings. By the Friday of the meeting one party could be well in front and the balance will influence the price of Don Cossack.

The horse was the highest rated chaser in Britain and Ireland last season. Don Cossack looked like he was coming to win the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day but fell two out. He beat Cue Card by 26 lengths at Aintree last spring and no other horse in this year’s Gold Cup has run to that level. The projected good ground at Cheltenham will suit Don Cossack and the horse is a worthy favourite for the most prestigious race of the season. Riding arrangements have yet to be decided.

Yorkhill got a massively positive word during the Betfair preview that was streamed online. The shout was for the Neptune and the potential for an upset because Yanworth is seen by some as the British trained banker of the week. Yorkhill has been heavily supported for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and if Ruby Walsh chooses the horse over Min that must be a tip. The decision in which race to contest will be made late so punters must back the horse in any race with bookmakers offering non runner/no bet.

Zubayr has the same profile as Zarkandar who won the Triumph Hurdle trained by Paul Nicholls in 2011. The trainer brought Zubayr into the picture for the juvenile championship in the race at Kempton that Zarkandar won. Both horses were bred for the Flat by the Aga Khan with speed allied to a good jumping technique. By day 4 the bookies could be in front and may look to lay some favourites including Don Cossack and Zubayr.

Best Wishes,

BetFan