3rd June 2017

TODAY'S WIN FREE TIP NEWS: 

Rekindling Can Be O'Brien's Sixth Derby Winner - Rick Elliott 

If Rhododendron has won the Oaks at Epsom on Friday Aidan O'Brien will have trained the winners of the first five Classics in Britain and Ireland. He could have up to seven runners in the Derby on Saturday including several fancied runners but another one of those could cause a shock. Rekindling looks overpriced in what is the most open Derby in many years.

The Derby is the most prestigious Flat race in the world. It is open to three-year-old colts and fillies and is run over the unique one mile four furlongs course at Epsom. The undulations and layout of the course means a horse requires balance, stamina and speed to win a race that is hugely important for the breeding industry. The Derby is the second leg of the colt's Triple Crown which also features the 2,000 Guineas and St Leger. The last horse to win all three races in the same season was Nijinsky in 1970. This year's Guineas winner is Churchill but he is not in the race.

Trends followers will take note that the last 10 winners had an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 128 or higher, each of those had not finished out of the first three after debut and all were from the top three in the betting. No winner in the last 31 years had run in a handicap. The five winners who ran in a Group race aged two were all successful over seven furlongs or one mile.

In recent years the Dante has become a key trial and Workforce is the only horse beaten in the race to win the Derby. However, he didn't have to reverse form with the trial winner. The Chester Vase is a race O'Brien uses as a prep for the Derby and Ruler Of The World won both races in 2013. The horse was the first Derby winner not to have competed as a two-year-old since Commander In Chief in 1993. Cliffs of Moher won the Chester Vase in May.

It's not uncommon for Derby winners to show improvement from their previous run. Permian was not an outstanding winner of the Dante but the form was solid and a decent effort in the context of Saturday's big race at Epsom. Cracksman did not run in the race but seemed to handle Epsom well in a training run. The horse is trained by John Gosden who believes he has come on mentally and his form has been boosted in other races. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and the trainer/jockey combination won the Derby with Golden Horn two years ago.

O'Brien will be mob handed in the Derby but it's interesting that when he has had a strong hard numerically in recent years he has not won the race. At the time of writing Ryan Moore is scheduled to ride Cliffs Of Moher and he gets first pick so that could be a tip in itself. However, the horse is bred along similar lines to Churchill who is excelling over one mile so stamina may not be his best attribute and that will be found out in the Derby.

Rekindling won the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in April with plenty in hand. He beat Capri by almost five lengths and that horse is much shorter than Rekindling in the betting. Capri has been the horse for money this week as the going has turned in his favour. He carried five pounds more than Rekindling in the Ballysax so in theory the horses are closely matched but Rekindling is twice the price and more. Racing Post Ratings have them on the same mark so Rekindling is the value option.

Rekindling finished fourth in the Dante, three and a quarter lengths adrift of Permian at the finish. The form of his Ballysax win has been boosted and he should be better over 12 furlongs as his brother Golden Sword was second in the Derby. O'Brien has said his horse is in good form and Rekindling rather than Cliffs Of Moher and others could give him his sixth Derby winner and continue his dominance of the Classics in Britain and Ireland.

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