Wednesday Issue

27th May 2015

Hi %%First Name%%,

Can you believe it's less than two weeks to the Epsom Derby meeting? Yesterday morning it was breakfast with the stars on the Downs with some of the main players strutting their stuff around Tattenham Corner to get a feel of the track.

Most experts I talk to think that the favourite Gold Horn will take the beating however there are slight stamina doubts and at 2/1 is it worth the risk?

Aiden O'Brien says he will probably keep Gleneagles to a mile and he might run the filly Found in the race along with his other entries. This says to me that there are no middle distance superstars in his yard this year.

The interesting ones for me are the Qatar team who have the fancied Elm Park entered but are thinking of supplementing Karpino and Sumbal two highly promising colts from the continent.

If this happens there main stable jockey will have a tough job deciding which one to ride and the brilliant Oisin Murphy will pick up the pieces as 2nd jockey for connections.

One thing is for sure the very talented Murphy is the best rider I have seen since the great Lester Piggott and he will win lots of Derbies in the years ahead.

Then of course you could back one of my eye-catchers Storm The Stars who won again for this column at Goodwood last week. I could see him setting the field a merry dance around Tattenham Corner and at big odds he is a bit of value.

Anyway who ever you fancy I would wait until later in the week to see who is added to the field before before splashing the cash.

Its been another top week for Betting Opportunity with Magical Mystery winning at 15/2 and yesterday Excilly at 16/1 there were plenty more but I get bored writing a list of my winners.

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We only put up two or three bets a day when we bet not like some services that have bets in every other race which to me sounds like throwing mud at the wall and hoping some sticks.

Also we don't rely on short price first or second favourites to get us out of trouble if we have a bad run.

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Just an ordinary days racing today but one that might be worth a punt for Howies Hottie is Dubai Hills in the 4.05 at Thirsk. The gelding is better known for his exploits on Southwells fibresand however he ran well on grass a couple of runs back and in a race which doesn't look to have much pace he could get the race run to suit up front.

EYE-CATCHERS

FLAT RACING

Havisham trainer A.Balding - A promising stayer who could be improving.

Harry Bosch trainer Julia Fielden - An easy winner for this column at Bath last week the gelding is still on a very competitive mark and could chalk up a sequence.

Roayh trainer R.Guest - Disappointed last week when not managing to get up with the pace. That run is best ignored as again he is very well weighted at present.

Mullionheir trainer J.Best - Ran a cracker when 3rd at Goodwood however dropping back to 6 furlongs might be a good idea.

John Reel trainer D.Evans - He ran well at Haydock last Saturday but I just have the feeling that 12 or 14 furlongs would be his ideal trip.

Mutarakez trainer B.Meehan - He won at Haydock despite not getting the best of runs. He could be group class and a mile to 10 furlongs are his trips.

Scottish Command trainer R.Hannon - I don't often put up many 2 year olds but when I do take notice. This chap looked in need of the run and was tenderly ridden by Richard Hughes but still came 4th. He is owned in partnership by Henry Ponsonby who was one of the first guys involved in setting up syndicates in this country. Look out for this one as I'm sure they will be looking for a winning betting opportunity.

Back next Wednesday have a good week and be lucky.

Howard Davis-Shaw.
Betting Opportunity

Click Here To Visit My Website

This Weeks Golf News - McIlroy and Spieth Go For Transatlantic Double

The Rory and Jordan show continues this week and both players are heading into tournaments in Europe and the States on the back of disappointments that will be no more than irritants in the context of their seasons. McIlroy is the host of the Irish Open in the country of his birth while Spieth is the highest ranked player in the field for the AT and T Byron Nelson tournament.

The Irish Open is hosted by the Rory Foundation and is being played at Royal County Down in Northern Ireland. The course is located in a natural links setting stretching along the shores of Dundrum Bay in Newcastle. The fairways are narrow and surrounded by gorse and heather so there is a premium on accuracy over distance. Deep bunkering adds to the challenge and hitting fairways and greens are the key skills. As always with seaside golf wind could be a factor so tee times will be significant even though a two-tee system negates some of the luck element.

County Down is a typical links course with fast and domed greens that will take some hitting. Any ball that does not land in a good position will run off the greens which makes players’ putting and scrambling skills paramount for decent scoring. This is a fine links course that could stage the British Open but is unlikely to be selected due to an inadequate infrastructure. Staging the Open now is as much about space for the grandstands and good transport links as the quality of the courses. Portrush is being added to the roster so another course in Northern Ireland is unlikely to be used even one with the qualities of County Down.

This tournament is very much McIlroy’s baby and in a perfect world he would win the event that is being held close to his family home. The Rory Foundation was set up by the best player in the world to give something back and help youngsters less fortunate than he was. As the man himself says on the website: “My aim is that the Rory Foundation will support children’s charities big and small around the world that try to give kids that helping hand.” The best possible result this week is that the sponsor wins the Irish Open but other players are more suited to the course and the star of the show missed the cut in the PGA Championship last week.

McIlroy played his last competitive golf as an amateur at Royal County Down in the 2007 Walker Cup. He has worked hard to attract a high quality field drawn by the cause, the prize fund and the chance to play on a typical links course and in conditions that replicate the demands of the Open Championship. The entry list includes 7 major champions who have 16 wins combined in the four most prestigious events in the sport. McIlroy and Ernie Els have each won four majors and Padraig Harrington has won three. Martin Kaymer is the other multiple major winner and Darren Clarke, Paul Lawrie and Graeme McDowell have won one each.

In this week’s field there are 149 players from 23 different countries and 94 European Tour winners with 374 victories in total between them. At number one McIlroy is obviously the highest world ranked player in the field but Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia are also in the top ten. Five of the competitors have at some stage been the world number one while seven have won the Order of Merit on the European Tour. Thomas Aiken and Francesco Molinari are not in either group but have profiles to contend this week.

Aiken is the only player in the field in the top 5 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation, important skills on links courses with greens that are shaped to make the bump and run shot a necessity. The South African has twice finished in the top ten in the Open Championship so has a game suited to links golf. Aiken won last year’s Sunshine Tour’s Order of Merit and can bring that momentum to the European Tour this week.

Molinari looked in control for much of the PGA Championship last week, the flagship event of the European Tour. However, he lost form in the final round and wasted a winning opportunity with 18 holes played in 74 strokes. Three rounds in the 60s preceded his fourth round so he can take more positives than negatives from the week. He is on a solid run of form and is in the top 20 for both accuracy disciplines on the US Tour. Jordan Spieth is statistically the best putter in that sphere and that brings him into the mix for the Byron Nelson tournament after finishing one shot off the pace last week in the Colonial.

The long-established tournament is one of just two named after a former player with Arnold Palmer the only other pro similarly honoured. TPC Four Seasons in Texas is a tree-lined, par 70 track with two reachable par 5s. The course puts a premium on accuracy from tee to green but this is balanced by large, undulating greens which yield plenty of birdies. As with all tournaments held in Texas, the wind is often a significant factor. The average winning score over the last six years has been almost 12 under but in a range from 3 to 19 below par depending on the weather.

The tournament has a recent history of big priced winners and players not able to convert a fourth round lead into a win. Most contenders in the last five years ranked more highly for driving accuracy than driving distance and an accurate long game is usually the key to a high finish here. Spieth is the best player in the field but not in the top 50 for driving accuracy and GIR and Jason Day looks more suited to the course. The Aussie is 18th for greens in regulation and scores highly for putting and that could be a winning combination of skills.

The US Open is the next major of the year and that is the most mentally demanding of the four. Par is always a good score and accuracy is vital. Both this week’s events are on links type courses but they can still provide a good form guide for the US Open even though McIlroy and Spieth are opposable favourites.

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